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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 5942, up 74 points or 1.3%. SPX opened the week at 5921, gaining 0.4% for the week. Trading volume ran well below the 50-day moving average (dma) all week, typical of holiday markets.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 17.2% and closed today at 16.1%, down almost 10% today.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 224.4, up 3.3 points or 1.5% on the day. IWM opened the week at 220.7 for a weekly gain of 1.7%. IWM trading volume ran close to the 50 dma this week.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 19,622, up 341 points or 1.8%. NASDAQ opened the week at 19,460, setting up a modest weekly gain of 0.8%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran above the 50 dma all week.
The Santa Claus rally was discovered by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The last five trading days of December and the first two days of January have averaged a positive 1.3% gain since 1969 through 2023. Unfortunately, Santa didn’t come to Wall Street this year (down 0.7%).
The Stock Trader’s Almanac also tracks the first five days of January trading as a forecast for the year ahead. Positive gains for the first five days of January have preceded a positive year for the S&P 500 index 83% of the time. After two days, SPX is up 0.7%.
The January Barometer tracks the full month’s trading gain or loss. A positive January Barometer has predicted a positive S&P 500 gain with 73% accuracy.
This market has been challenging to trade since the S&P 500 index hit its most recent high on December 6th. SPX traded lower almost immediately and then did a quick turnaround and almost recovered that previous high. But then the market gave it all back during the closing days of December. It has been very frustrating to see tentative gains and then watch them disappear just as quickly. Fortunately, our Apple spread survived the chaos with a nice gain.
Today’s positive market gains give me hope for a better new year.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6,090, up 15 points or +0.3%. SPX opened the week at 6,040, gaining 0.8% for the week. Trading volume ran along the 50-day moving average (dma) all week.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 14.1% and closed today at 12.8%, down almost 6% today.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 238.9, up almost one point or +0.4% on the day. IWM opened the week at 242.2 for a weekly loss of -1.4%. IWM steadily moved lower this week. IWM trading volume ran below the 50 dma and declined slightly as the week worn on.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 19,860, up 160 points or
+0.8%. NASDAQ opened the week at 19,255, setting up a nice weekly gain of 3.1%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran above the 50 dma on Wednesday and Thursday but ran below average the balance of the week.
The blue chip markets, SPX and NASDAQ traded higher this week, but the small caps of the Russell 2000 index, as represented by IWM, declined steadily all week. Russell’s weekly loss may be a red flag for markets next week. My trading this week has been generally very positive, whether it be the selling calls and puts in the Conservative Income trading service or the SPX Zero DTE options trading service. In the personal account that mirrors the zero dte trading service, I gained $4,600 this week. Trading the zeros is intense and you must diligently manage the risk, but it can be quite lucrative.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 5,871, down 79 points or -1.3%. SPX opened the week at 6,009, losing 2.3% for the week. Trading volume spiked up on the day following the election and declined the rest of that week and into this week, although it spiked up above the 50-day moving average (dma) today.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 15.3% and declined steadily through Thursday’s close at 14.3%, but rose today to 15.1%.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 228.5, down 3.5 points or -1.5% on the day. IWM opened the week at 240.5 for a weekly loss of -5.0%. IWM steadily declined every day this week. IWM trading volume ran at or above the 50 dma all week but spiked higher Tuesday and today.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 18,680, down 428 points or -2.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 19,355, setting up a substantial weekly loss of 3.5%. NASDAQ’s trading volume has run well above the 50 dma since the day of the election through today.
The markets traded higher after the election but cooled substantially this week. At least part of that decline belongs to FOMC chairman Powell’s comments. He said the Fed may not feel as pressured to reduce interest rates further this year since the economy is doing so well. Boston Fed President Collins piled on, saying a December rate cut is “not a done deal”. That took the steam out of this post-election bull run.
Weekly losses for the S&P 500 stocks, the NASDAQ Composite and the Russell 2000 index came in at -2.3%, -3.5% and -5.0%, respectively. In spite of these large declines, IBD’s recommended stock market exposure remains at 80-100% today.
This week was just one more example of how difficult it has been to trade this market. Just when you think a bullish trend has begun, the rug gets pulled out from under you. The S&P 500 index gapped lower at today’s opening and traded lower by 1.3%, with a large spike in trading volume. Could this be capitulation as many traders throw in the towel? NASDAQ also gapped open lower today and dropped 2.2% before finding support at its July high. NASDAQ’s trading volume has exceeded its 50 dma all week. The Russell 2000, as measured by the IWM, appeared to find support at its mid-October high concurrently with a spike in trading volume.
This gives me some hope for a recovery next week, but I may be grasping at straws.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 5,969, up 21 points or +0.4%. SPX opened the week at 5,874, gaining 1.6% for the week. Trading volume ran along the 50-day moving average (dma) all week.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 16.6% and closed today at 15.2%, slightly higher mid-week, but VIX declined today.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 238.7, up four points or +1.9% on the day. IWM opened the week at 229.2 for a weekly gain of +4.1%. IWM led the broad market averages higher this week. IWM trading volume declined slightly as the week worn on.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 19,004, up 61 points or
+0.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 18,718, setting up a weekly gain of 1.5%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran above the 50 dma all week except for Wednesday.
The markets reversed course from last week and traded higher this week. The S&P 500 stocks rose 1.6% this week; the NASDAQ Composite tacked on 1.5%. But the Russell 2000 index was running hard, up 4.1%. Russell’s gain is very encouraging as this index consists of smaller high beta stocks. These are the stocks the large funds turn to build their returns when they anticipate smooth sailing ahead. Conversely, they are the first stocks to be sold when the storm clouds are feared.
As you may recall from last week’s newsletter, I was seeing some signs of a possible recovery this week after the ugliness last week. However, I am a little scarred from the last couple of months of a very choppy market. I am focusing on the large cap tech stocks for a safe vehicle for this apparent bull run.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 5,996, up 22 points or +0.4%. SPX opened the week at 5,725, gaining 4.7% for the week. Trading volume spiked up on the day following the election and declined the rest of the week, although it remained above the 50 day moving average (dma).
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 22.5% and declined after the election, closing the week at 14.9%. The combination of the election and the FOMC meeting greatly reduced market uncertainty.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 238.1, up 1.7 points or +0.7% on the day. IWM opened the week at 218.5 for a weekly gain of 9.0%. IWM gapped open the day after the election with a gain of 12.4 points or 6%. The IWM trading volume spike on 11/6 exceeded even that of the correction in early August.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 19,287, up 17.3 points or
+0.09%. NASDAQ opened the week at 18,220, setting up a substantial weekly gain of 5.9%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran above the 50 dma all week, but its largest spike was on the second day following the election.
Wow! To say the market was energized by the election results is an understatement. IBD immediately upgraded their recommended stock market exposure to
80-100% after Tuesday’s election results.
The FOMC met Wednesday and Thursday and that certainly added to this week’s market uncertainty. The committee unanimously recommended a twenty five basis point reduction in the federal discount rate, resulting in a range of 4.50% to 4.75%.
The net result of both of these events was a strong bullish run in the markets and a significant reduction in market volatility with the VIX declining to 14.9% after opening the week at over 22%.
Weekly gains for the S&P 500 stocks, the NASDAQ Composite and the Russell 2000 index climbed 4.7%, 5.9% and 9.0%, respectively. This is in line with the average beta values of the stocks populating those indices. Higher beta stocks run faster in bullish markets as compared to the S&P 500 stocks. But they also outperform the S&P in the run lower in bearish markets. High beta stocks are the classic “risk on” and “risk off” stocks.
We closed last week boarding up the windows of our portfolio. This week we find ourselves relieved and out searching for opportunities. We closed our QQQ iron condor for a nice gain of 19% before the election. I plan to open a new one next week.
