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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6603, up 64 points or one percent. SPX opened the week at 6714, losing 1.7% for the week. Trading volume spiked up above the 50-day moving average (dma) yesterday and today.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 23.4%. VIX opened the week at 19.6% for a weekly increase of 19%.
I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 106 today, up 1.9 points or 1.8%. SPHB opened the week at 110, setting up a weekly decline of 3.6%.
All of the broad market indices posted declines of 1.7% up to 3.6%. The S&P 500 index, the NASDAQ Composite, and the high beta stocks of the S&P 500 all posted losses yesterday going back to the lows of mid-September and October. Traders were really spooked by the end of Thursday’s debacle. The week’s decline at that point brought out all the “sky is falling” crowd.
Today’s trading sank even lower, breaking through Thursday’s close, but then the market turned higher and recovered about half of Thursday’s losses before pulling back modestly into the close. This situation reminds me of this time last week. We thought we might be staring over the cliff, but last Friday’s trading gave us some hope. That hope was dashed this week, but here we are again, seeing signs of a moderately strong recovery, leading us to hope this market has found its bottom.
I remain spooked. Cut your losses, if you haven’t already, and sit comfortably on your cash.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6734, down 3 points or -0.05%. SPX opened the week at 6785, losing 0.8% for the week. Trading volume ran just above the 50-day moving average (dma) all week. Today’s close was just above the 50 dma and on a support level around 6700.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 19.8%, after spiking to 23% earlier today.
I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 108.6 today, down less than one point or -0.2%. SPHB opened the week at 114.5, setting up a weekly decline of 5.2%. SPHB trading volume is running below the 50 dma. SPHB tried to break above the 50 dma today, but pulled back to close below that resistance level.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 22,901, up 30 points or 0.13%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,355, setting up a weekly loss of 1.9%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran at or below the 50 dma all week. NASDAQ rallied today to close above the 50 dma.
The broad market indices declined this week with the S&P 500 high beta stocks leading the way with a 5% loss for the week. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite broke their 50 day moving averages last Friday, but both recovered their 50 dma today. S&P’s high beta stocks remain below their 50 dma and posted the largest weekly decline at 5%. This leaves us with a “maybe yes” and “maybe no” situation. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ appear to be resuming their bullish runs, but the high beta stocks of SPX have not yet recovered. That is a significant cautionary signal.
I remain slightly bullish but very cautious.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) put on a show this week, hitting a new all-time high on Wednesday, falling out of bed on Thursday, and then recovering all of that loss today, closing at 6840. SPX opened the week at 6845 to end the week essentially unchanged. Trading volume spiked for the last three days of the week.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 15.7% and closed today at 17.4%. VIX increased all week as traders worried about the FOMC and then were spooked by Powell’s comments on Thursday.
I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 115.1 today, +0.7 points or 0.6%. SPHB opened the week at 116 for a weekly loss of 0.8%. SPHB trading volume spiked with the FOMC drop on Thursday but ran below the 50 dma the rest of the week.
The NASDAQ Composite index recovered much of Wednesday’s collapse, closing at 23,725, up 144 points or 0.6%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,537, gaining 0.8% for the week. Trading volume ran at or above the 50 dma all week.
The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data, leaving traders in the dark in terms of economic and unemployment data. The market continues to be fundamentally bullish, but with significant price spikes and declines, based on the news and rumors each day.
The FOMC reduced the federal discount rate by 25 basis points on Thursday and the market spiked higher. But then Powell threw cold water on the market when asked about another rate cut in December. Normally he would have answered that the decision would depend on the data in December, but not this time. He opined that he doubted another rate cut would occur this year. The market tanked. But we recovered most of that loss on Friday. I take that as a sign of bullish confidence. But the volatility is spooky.
My advice for next week remains the same: Stay calm and look for opportunities, but don’t force the trade. It doesn’t hurt to take a pause.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6729, up 8 points or 0.1%. SPX opened the week at 6882, losing 2.2% for the week. Trading volume ran just above the 50-day moving average (dma) all week.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 19.1%, but that only tells part of the story. VIX spiked to 22.7% today before declining to 19.1% at the close. Recovery?
I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 112.5 today, up less than one point or +0.4%. SPHB opened the week at 115.6, setting up a weekly decline of 2.7%. SPHB trading volume spiked up to 956,900 shares today, 157% over the 50 dma.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 23,005, down 49 points or
0.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,952, setting up a large weekly loss of 4.0%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week.
The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data, leaving traders in the dark. Perhaps that is one of the factors resulting in the current levels of market volatility.
The broad market indices hit all-time highs on 11/3, but began a slide lower the next day. This week’s declines were ugly with SPX at -2.2%, NASDAQ at
-4.0% and the high beta stocks of the S&P 500 declining 2.7%.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite broke their 50 day moving averages on Friday. That is normally a significant bearish signal. However, that signal appeared to awaken the bull, as all of the indices perked up and recovered a large portion of this week’s losses. SPX is down 2.2% this week but managed to recover enough by the close today to post a small, but positive, daily gain.
A strong bullish signal came from the S&P’s high beta stocks. Their trading volume spiked today to 956,900 shares, up 157% over the 50 dma. That suggests that large institutional traders saw this a “risk on” event and began loading up on high beta stocks to magnify portfolio gains.
I am looking forward to Monday’s market opening to see if the bullish ending of today’s market continues next week. I am optimistic but cautious.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed up 35 points today, closing at 6664. SPX opened the week at 6623, setting up a weekly gain of 0.6%. Trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week. SPX is trading within the channel from 6561 to 6705.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 19.5% and climbed as high as 28% this morning but closed today at 20.8%, down 18%. The market has calmed significantly.
I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 111.1 today, down less than one point or 0.1%. SPHB opened the week at 110 for a weekly gain of one percent. SPHB trading volume ran above average all week with the exception of Thursday.
The NASDAQ Composite index recovered much of last Friday’s collapse, closing at 22,680, up 117 points or 0.5%. NASDAQ opened the week at 22,579, gaining 0.4% for the week. Trading volume ran above the 50 dma most of the week but settled down to the 50 dma today.
Traders opened this week carefully after last Friday’s ugly decline of 2.7%.
The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data, leaving traders in the dark in terms of economic and unemployment data.
Last Friday, I suggested three possibilities for this week:
• Will calmer minds dominate trading on Monday morning?
• Will the lower prices be seen as buying opportunities?
• Could the market slide continue lower?
The S&P 500 stocks gave up 187 points last Friday, but they recovered 41% of that loss this week. I take that as a sign of bullish confidence. We aren’t going over the cliff. It just remains a very volatile market.
My advice for next week remains the same: Stay calm and look for opportunities, but don’t force the trade. It doesn’t hurt to take a pause.
