The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6041, down 31 points or 0.5%. SPX opened the week at 5969, gaining 1.2% for the week. Today’s trading broke the earlier all-time high at 6119 on 1/23, but it could not hold that high. Trading volume ran above the 50-day moving average (dma) all week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 18.8% and moved lower all week, but rose almost one point to close today at 16.4%.

I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 226.5, down 2.1 points or -0.9% on the day. IWM opened the week at 220.7 for a weekly gain of 1.7%. IWM trading volume spiked above the 50 dma today. IWM has traded in a tight range of 225-230 for the past eleven days.

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 19,627, down 54 points or 
-0.3%. NASDAQ opened the week at 19,234, setting up a weekly gain of 2.0%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran below the 50 dma most of the week, but spiked higher today.


The Stock Trader’s Almanac tracks three primary indicators for predictions for the annual gains for 2025:

• The Santa Claus rally, the last five trading days of December and the first two days of January, failed this year, down 0.7%.


• The first five days of January trading was positive at +0.6%.


• The January Barometer, which monitors the full month’s trading gain or loss, came in at +2.3% this year.

This combination of a negative Santa Claus rally, with a positive first five days and a positive January Barometer has only occurred three times with subsequent average annual gains of 15%.
However, just focusing on the January Barometer alone has a solid track record. Positive returns in January are followed by positive annual returns 89% of the time.

While the Stock Trader’s Almanac prediction for the year is positive, the choppiness we have observed thus far this year has been principally due to three factors:

• The ultimate economic effect of Trump’s tariff threats,


• Federal reserve discount rate changes, and


• The economic fallout of the global AI competition.

That leaves me long term bullish, with a strong dose of caution surrounding key economic news. Thus, I expect a positive 2025, but laced with significant choppiness, much as we have seen this past month. Be cautious.