Dr. Duke's Blog

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 15 November 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6734, down 3 points or -0.05%. SPX opened the week at 6785, losing 0.8% for the week. Trading volume ran just above the 50-day moving average (dma) all week. Today’s close was just above the 50 dma and on a support level around 6700.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 19.8%, after spiking to 23% earlier today. 

I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 108.6 today, down less than one point or -0.2%. SPHB opened the week at 114.5, setting up a weekly decline of 5.2%. SPHB trading volume is running below the 50 dma. SPHB tried to break above the 50 dma today, but pulled back to close below that resistance level.

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 22,901, up 30 points or 0.13%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,355, setting up a weekly loss of 1.9%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran at or below the 50 dma all week. NASDAQ rallied today to close above the 50 dma. 

The broad market indices declined this week with the S&P 500 high beta stocks leading the way with a 5% loss for the week. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite broke their 50 day moving averages last Friday, but both recovered their 50 dma today. S&P’s high beta stocks remain below their 50 dma and posted the largest weekly decline at 5%. This leaves us with a “maybe yes” and “maybe no” situation. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ appear to be resuming their bullish runs, but the high beta stocks of SPX have not yet recovered. That is a significant cautionary signal.

I remain slightly bullish but very cautious.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 08 November 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6729, up 8 points or 0.1%. SPX opened the week at 6882, losing 2.2% for the week. Trading volume ran just above the 50-day moving average (dma) all week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 19.1%, but that only tells part of the story. VIX spiked to 22.7% today before declining to 19.1% at the close. Recovery?

I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 112.5 today, up less than one point or +0.4%. SPHB opened the week at 115.6, setting up a weekly decline of 2.7%. SPHB trading volume spiked up to 956,900 shares today, 157% over the 50 dma. 

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 23,005, down 49 points or 
0.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,952, setting up a large weekly loss of 4.0%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week.

The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data, leaving traders in the dark. Perhaps that is one of the factors resulting in the current levels of market volatility. 
The broad market indices hit all-time highs on 11/3, but began a slide lower the next day. This week’s declines were ugly with SPX at -2.2%, NASDAQ at 
-4.0% and the high beta stocks of the S&P 500 declining 2.7%.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite broke their 50 day moving averages on Friday. That is normally a significant bearish signal. However, that signal appeared to awaken the bull, as all of the indices perked up and recovered a large portion of this week’s losses. SPX is down 2.2% this week but managed to recover enough by the close today to post a small, but positive, daily gain.

A strong bullish signal came from the S&P’s high beta stocks. Their trading volume spiked today to 956,900 shares, up 157% over the 50 dma. That suggests that large institutional traders saw this a “risk on” event and began loading up on high beta stocks to magnify portfolio gains.

I am looking forward to Monday’s market opening to see if the bullish ending of today’s market continues next week. I am optimistic but cautious. 

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 01 November 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) put on a show this week, hitting a new all-time high on Wednesday, falling out of bed on Thursday, and then recovering all of that loss today, closing at 6840. SPX opened the week at 6845 to end the week essentially unchanged. Trading volume spiked for the last three days of the week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 15.7% and closed today at 17.4%. VIX increased all week as traders worried about the FOMC and then were spooked by Powell’s comments on Thursday.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 115.1 today, +0.7 points or 0.6%. SPHB opened the week at 116 for a weekly loss of 0.8%. SPHB trading volume spiked with the FOMC drop on Thursday but ran below the 50 dma the rest of the week. 

The NASDAQ Composite index recovered much of Wednesday’s collapse, closing at 23,725, up 144 points or 0.6%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,537, gaining 0.8% for the week. Trading volume ran at or above the 50 dma all week.

The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data, leaving traders in the dark in terms of economic and unemployment data. The market continues to be fundamentally bullish, but with significant price spikes and declines, based on the news and rumors each day.

The FOMC reduced the federal discount rate by 25 basis points on Thursday and the market spiked higher. But then Powell threw cold water on the market when asked about another rate cut in December. Normally he would have answered that the decision would depend on the data in December, but not this time. He opined that he doubted another rate cut would occur this year. The market tanked. But we recovered most of that loss on Friday. I take that as a sign of bullish confidence. But the volatility is spooky.

My advice for next week remains the same: Stay calm and look for opportunities, but don’t force the trade. It doesn’t hurt to take a pause.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 17 October 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed up 35 points today, closing at 6664. SPX opened the week at 6623, setting up a weekly gain of 0.6%. Trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week. SPX is trading within the channel from 6561 to 6705.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 19.5% and climbed as high as 28% this morning but closed today at 20.8%, down 18%. The market has calmed significantly.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 111.1 today, down less than one point or 0.1%. SPHB opened the week at 110 for a weekly gain of one percent. SPHB trading volume ran above average all week with the exception of Thursday.

The NASDAQ Composite index recovered much of last Friday’s collapse, closing at 22,680, up 117 points or 0.5%. NASDAQ opened the week at 22,579, gaining 0.4% for the week. Trading volume ran above the 50 dma most of the week but settled down to the 50 dma today.
Traders opened this week carefully after last Friday’s ugly decline of 2.7%. 

The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data, leaving traders in the dark in terms of economic and unemployment data.

Last Friday, I suggested three possibilities for this week:

   • Will calmer minds dominate trading on Monday morning? 


   • Will the lower prices be seen as buying opportunities? 


   • Could the market slide continue lower? 

The S&P 500 stocks gave up 187 points last Friday, but they recovered 41% of that loss this week. I take that as a sign of bullish confidence. We aren’t going over the cliff. It just remains a very volatile market.

My advice for next week remains the same: Stay calm and look for opportunities, but don’t force the trade. It doesn’t hurt to take a pause.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 10 October 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) plunged today, closing at 6553, down 183 points or 2.7%. SPX opened the week at 6734 for a loss of 2.7% for the week. Trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week but spiked higher today as the market sold off. The S&P 500 index has not traded off this badly since the correction in early April.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 16.7% and traded sideways most of the week, closing Thursday at 16.4%. However, today’s sell-off spiked volatility to a close of 21.7%.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 107.5 today, down 5.4 points or 4.8%. SPHB opened the week at 113.7 for a weekly decline of 5.5%. SPHB trading volume spiked up 274% today.

The NASDAQ Composite index collapsed today, closing at 22,204, down 820 points or 3.6%. NASDAQ opened the week at 22,894, losing 3.0% for the week. Trading volume ran steadily above the 50 dma all week and didn’t even spike higher with the market sell-off today.

Since the market correction hit its low in early April, the market has steadily trended higher, in spite of multiple uncertainties: tariffs, political tension, deportation of illegal immigrants, etc. After the cease fire announcement in the middle east yesterday, I assumed a strong market would make its showing today. That prediction lasted until just before 11 am ET, when news of increased tariff tensions with China hit the markets. From that moment until the close of trading the S&P 500 lost over 2.7%. Ugly!

The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data. Shortly before the shutdown, the third and final estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in at +3.8%. That was impressive, but now it seems we are trading largely in the dark in terms of economic and unemployment data.

I have often cautioned my clients about event risk. It is always a surprise and it can really hurt, just as it did today. When these market sell-offs occur on Fridays, analysts always speculate:

   •  Will calmer minds dominate trading on Monday morning? 



   •  Will the lower prices be seen as buying opportunities? 



   •  Could the market slide continue lower? 
 
Stay calm and look for opportunities, but don’t force the trade. It doesn’t hurt to take a pause.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 20 September 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) set another all-time high today, closing at 6664, up 32 points or +0.5%. SPX opened the week at 6603 for a 0.9% gain for the week. Trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week, with the exception of today’s spike, due to quadruple witching.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 15.1%, and closed today at 15.5%. VIX spiked up a bit to 16.8% on Wednesday with the FOMC announcement.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 110.6 today, down less than one point or -0.1%. SPHB opened the week at 108.0 and posted a gain of 2.4% for the week. Trading volume spiked higher yesterday after the FOMC announcement.

The NASDAQ Composite index set a new all-time high today, closing at 22,631, up 161 points or 0.7%. NASDAQ opened the week at 22,343, gaining 1.3% for the week. Trading volume remained at or below the 50 dma this week except for a move higher yesterday and a large spike today with the quadruple witching today.

This market has lived with the uncertainties of the tariffs, political tension, deportation of illegal immigrants, and the continuous noise of the protesters as background. Apparently, it is becoming old hat, and the market just motors higher, setting several all-time highs over the past two weeks.

The FOMC meeting was the event on traders’ minds for the past several weeks. It was interesting to follow the one-minute chart on SPX through the day on Wednesday. It was choppy and wandering sideways until the announcement at 2 pm ET. Then it spiked higher on the 25-basis point reduction in the federal discount rate. Then it started to weaken, and it plunged during the press conference as Powell struggled to explain the reasoning behind their decision for a 25-point reduction rather than a 50-point reduction, considered more appropriate by many economists.

I often trade the SPX Zero DTE options and Wednesday was no exception. One consequence of the discount rate battle was higher than normal implied volatility at the start of the day for the SPX options. And implied volatility did not decrease much even after the announcement. On the other hand, I gained 37% on my zero dte trade in the midst of the chaos.

The basic economic data remain positive, and the bullish nature of the market seems solid. I was most impressed with the 2.4% rise of the high beta S&P 500 stocks this week. Event risk is our main concern at this point. It won’t take much news or even rumors to cause traders to sell to lock in these gains. Stay calm and stick to your trading rules.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 05 September 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) opened lower again this morning, influenced negatively by the jobs report and its possible effect on the FOMC meeting's deliberations week after next. Many market analysts are thinking the Fed may finally lower rates at the September meeting. SPX lost 21 points today, closing at 6482 for a 0.3% loss for the week. Trading volume continued to run below average this week until today's trading when volume just touched the 50 dma.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 16.7%, and declined all week to close at 15.2%. The institutional traders are moving to a tentative conclusion that the Fed will lower the discount rate at the September meeting (9/16-17). This is fueling the market’s move higher.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 105.3 today, up 0.4 points or +0.3%.  SPHB opened the week at 102.8 and posted a gain of 2.4% for the week. Trading volume ran along the 50 dma this week, until it rose slightly above the 50 dma today.

The NASDAQ Composite index closed at 21,700, down 7 points or 0.03%. NASDAQ opened today at a new all-time high but could not hold it into the 
close. NASDAQ opened the week at 21,087, up 2.9% for the week. Trading volume remained below average all week.

The overall market has slowly ground higher, pulling back every few days, but rebounding to gain a bit more ground. The gradual decline in VIX reflects that effect. However, the tariffs, political uncertainty, deportation of illegal immigrants, and the continuous noise of the professional protesters in the streets continue as background. 

It is surprising that the markets are ignoring the noise and steadily moving higher. The S&P 500 stocks set a new all-time high this week. NASDAQ set a new 
all-time high today but couldn’t hold it into the close. Similarly, the high beta stocks of the S&P 500 touched its previous all-time high today but pulled back slightly.

I cannot remember a time when the financial news carried so much speculation about the FOMC’s next meeting this far in advance. Normally, it appears on traders’ radar the week before the meeting.

The basic economic data remain positive, but the choppiness will likely continue until after the FOMC announcement on 9/17. Stay calm and stick to your trading rules.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 30 August 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) opened lower this morning, influenced negatively by the PCE index report that may cause the Fed to leave rates unchanged at the September meeting. SPX gained 42 points today, closing at 6460 for a 0.6% gain on the day and flat for the week. Trading volume continued to run below average all week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 15.1%, increased to a high of 16.0% today, but closed at 15.4%, effectively unchanged on the week.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 104.9 today, down 1.5 points or -1.4%.  SPHB opened the week at 104.4 and rose 0.5% on the week. Trading volume chopped above and below the 50 dma this week.

The NASDAQ Composite index closed at 21,456, down 250 points or -1.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 21,466, thus effectively unchanged for the week. NASDAQ’s trading volume remained below average all week.

Many traders have expressed concern about the choppiness of this market. I think we often forget that today’s market reflects a discounting of the predicted future market. Hence, the tariffs spooked the market several weeks ago; then they reversed that doomsday opinion. When Trump announced the meeting with Putin in Alaska, everyone was convinced Putin was going to offer concessions to end the war with Ukraine. But those expectations were naive. Last week’s rally was triggered by Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, but then market analysts reviewed his remarks more carefully and reduced their enthusiasm.

The market reacted to the PCE index report this morning, up 0.2% from +0.3% last month, or +2.6% year over year. The market consensus feared that result may dissuade the FOMC from lowering rates at the September meeting. Monday’s market opening will show if further reflection calms or stokes those concerns. NASDAQ declined 1.2% this week while the S&P 500 was effectively flat (up 0.03%). Stay calm. The basic economic data remain positive, but traders are running from one side of the boat to the other. 

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 22 August 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) opened higher this morning. It appeared that many of the large players believed Powell’s speech was going to hint at lower rates. And shortly after 10 am ET (the schedule for his speech in Jackson Hole), the market was off to the races. The S&P 500 index tacked on 97 points today, closing at 6467 for a 1.5% gain on the day and up 0.3% for the week. However, trading volume continued to run below average all week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 15.7%, increased to a high of 17.2% on Thursday and then dropped to 14.2% today. Powell’s speech relieved a lot of tension in the markets.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 104.9 today, up 3.4 points or +3.3%.  SPHB opened the week at 103.1 and rose 1.7% on the week. Trading volume spiked higher today as the institutional players started buying high beta stocks, anticipating the market’s continued rise.
 
The NASDAQ Composite index declined most of the week, but that changed today. NASDAQ closed up 396 points at 21,497, up 1.9% on the day but up only 0.6% for the week. NASDAQ’s trading volume remained below average all week but finally hit the 50 dma today.

The market has been struggling this year over a variety of concerns, including the effects of tariffs on inflation, global tensions in Israel and Iran, and the continuing war in Ukraine. The report of +3.0% GDP growth for the second quarter surprised economists several weeks ago but that didn’t seem to affect the market.

The IBD stock market exposure recommendations have been whipsawing up and down all month. First the recommended level of 80-100% declined to 60-80% on August 1, reversed back to 80-100% a week later and recently dropped back to 60-80%. But today’s market rally, triggered by Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole caused IBD to return to the 80-100% recommended stock market exposure. 

Jerome Powell suggested that economic conditions “may warrant” rate cuts at the September meeting, but he was careful to issue many caveats as well. As one may gather from the current economic data, it is easy to predict positive market conditions for the immediate future. I think the current polarization of our political environment causes a significant amount of market anxiety. Today’s market rally was driven by Powell’s remarks this morning, with the Dow hitting a new all time high, the S&P 500 index rising 1.5% (very close to an all-time high) and NASDAQ rising 1.9%.

I will be watching for confirmation of today’s bullish move on Monday, but I expect to find new buying opportunities in this renewed bull market. 

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 08 August 2025

Last Friday, the Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) took a tumble, gapping down at the opening and heading lower. That spooked me, but this week’s trading recovered all of that loss, although it was a rough and choppy ride. SPX opened the week at 6272, for a weekly gain of 1.9%. Trading volume was at or below average all week.
 
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 19.6% and steadily declined to a close of 15.2% today. 

I track the movement of the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 101.4 today, up less than one point or +0.4%.  Trading volume fell all week. The large players sold their high beta stocks, taking a lot of risk off the table.

The NASDAQ Composite index posted a stellar week, gaining 207 points to close at 21,450, matching its previous all-time high on 7/31. NASDAQ opened the week at 20,854, setting up a strong weekly gain of 2.9%. Surprisingly, NASDAQ’s trading volume remained below average all week.

The market has been struggling this year as various commentators have predicted the tariff negotiations will lead to recession and renewed inflation. 
A few weeks ago, the report on GDP growth for the second quarter surprised economists with a reading of +3.0%, but that didn’t seem to gain any traction. Global tensions in Israel, Iran and the various terrorist groups continue to make headlines.

The latest IBD market exposure recommendations, moving down on August 1 and then reversing back higher just a week later show how the mood of market participants is swinging back and forth almost daily. The S&P 500 index made a dramatic move lower last week and yet recovered all of those losses in just one week. Market analysts are spooked by the news feeds even when they know the economic data are solid. The sum of this current form of “yellow journalism” causes the large institutional players to hit their sell buttons quickly but then they fear they may be missing the boat and they hit their buy buttons. 

The essence of free market forces is the open consideration of future risk and planning hedging protection. My analysis of the economic news leads me to a moderately optimistic view of the future economy. Certainly there are uncertainties but that is nothing new. The extreme volatility of the current markets is disconcerting, and I find myself surprised that my trading positions are doing well. Take a deep breath and calm yourself. We have to find the balance between the doomsday gurus and the naivete of the rose colored glasses crowd.