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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 7580, up 16 points for a gain of 0.2%. SPX opened this shortened week at 7511, setting up a weekly gain of 0.9%. Trading volume has run at the 50 dma nearly all month and spiked higher today. This may be based on Trump’s announcements concerning the negotiations with Iran but I am unsure.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 16.9% and closed today at 15.3%, down 9.5%. Given all of the news focused on the Middle East, this steady decline in implied volatility is telling. The markets are not concerned.
I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed today at 150.0, up 2.1 points or +1.4%. SPHB opened the week at 144.7, setting up a weekly gain of 3.7%. Trading volume spiked higher on Wednesday, but that was an exception. SPHB’s trading volume declined significantly the rest of the week.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 26,973, up 55 points or +0.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 26,590, setting up a weekly gain of 1.4%. Trading volume spiked above average today but continues to run at or below the 50 dma.
The broad stock market is in a very strong bullish trend. The S&P 500 stocks are up 18.5% since March 31st. This seems somewhat surprising when one watches the evening news with so much political unrest and widely contrasting views on the war in Iran. Note two items in recent economic data: Durable goods orders are up nearly 8% in April and the Chicago PMI jumped from 49.2 to 62.7. The Chicago PMI is a survey of the purchasing managers in large Fortune 500 corporations. That is the foundation of this strong stock market trend. Large domestic capital investments have ebnn announced and are breaking ground, ranging from AI to industrial goods. Oil prices will quickly decline after the Iran war is ended. Lower oil prices will turn economic metrics higher and reduce the inflation numbers.
The primary issue facing investors is the price volatility in the markets. It is easy to be whipsawed in and out of solid stocks. I have been stopped out of several positions and then found myself reentering those same stocks with a few days.
If you have any questions or concerns, please contact me. I will be happy to help in any way I can.
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The month of April was a tough one for my family with two funerals in ten days and the associated travel. As I opened the newsletter this morning, I was shocked to see how long it has been since my last issue. I apologize and will do my best to not let this happen again.
The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 7399, up 62 points for a gain of 0.8%. SPX opened the week at 7228, setting up a weekly gain of 2.4%. Trading volume has only run above average twice this week and once last week.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 17.2% and closed today at 17.4%, essentially flat for the week. Historically, we would not regard these volatility levels as low but given all of the market and global turmoil in just the first four months of this year, 17% seems low by comparison. After all, VIX hit 35% on March 9.
I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed today at 141.7.5, up 2.9 points or +2.1%. SPHB opened the week at 135.7, setting up a weekly gain of 4.4%. Trading volume spiked higher on Wednesday, but that was an exception. SPHB’s trading volume has been running below the 50 dma most of the time for the last thirty days.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 26,247, up 441 points or +1.7%. NASDAQ opened the week at 25,112, setting up a weekly gain of 4.5%. Trading volume continues to run at or below the 50 dma.
It is interesting to take a “clinical” look at the charts. We have been in an extremely bullish trend since the end of March, but it doesn’t feel that way. I think the market price volatility, the Iran war and extreme political division, including significant domestic violence, has colored my views. Effectively, I missed a significant bullish run while hiding under the desk. Since March 31, the S&P 500 has gained 16%, the high beta S&P stocks, as measured by SPHB, are up 26% and NASDAQ is up 25%. Wow!
These gains are not that surprising when you look at the basic economic data. The economic outlook is very strong with strong GDP growth and large domestic capital expenditures announced and breaking ground.
If you have any questions or concerns, please contact me. I will be happy to help in any way I can.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6740, down 90 points for a loss of 1.3%. SPX opened the week at 6824, setting up a weekly loss of 1.2%. SPX broke down through the 50 dma last week and today’s slide takes SPX to its low for this year. Trading volume ran along the 50 dma this week.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, spiked to 28% during trading on Tuesday and spiked as high as 30% today before closing at 29.5%.
I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed today at 118.3, down 3.6 points or 3%. SPHB opened the week at 120.3, setting up a weekly loss of 1.7%. Trading volume was above average most of the week, peaking yesterday.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 22,388, down 361 points or
1.6%. NASDAQ opened the week at 22,322, setting up a weekly loss of 0.3%. NASDAQ was hit hard early in the week, recovered by Thursday and then gapped open lower today. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week.
The war in Iran has spooked world economies. Yesterday, a retired admiral wrote an article saying that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed by Iranian speed boats. He set off a panic about oil prices that continued into today’s markets. Allow me to apply a little common sense and observe that most of the American Navy is in the Persian Gulf north of the strait of Hormuz and in the Gulf of Oman south of the strait and they have sunk 90% of the Iranian navy. This will be all over shortly.
Successful trading in this market is limited to two areas: 1) Buying quality stocks at bargain prices and 2) day trading the indices. I have been trading the SPX zero dte options all week and booked gains every day for a total of $4,900 with ten contracts in a $50k account.
If you have any questions or concerns, please contact me. I will be happy to help in any way I can.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed yesterday at 6369, down 108 points for a loss of 1.7%. SPX opened the week at 6575, setting up a weekly loss of 3.1%. SPX broke down through the 50 dma on 2/12 and broke through the 200 dma on 3/19. Trading volume ran below average all week. SPX is now down 7.4% since 1/2/26.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened Friday morning at 27.4% and spiked to close at 31.1%, below its recent high of 35.3% on 3/9.
I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed Friday at 113.5, down 2.5 points or 2.1%. SPHB opened the week at 117.8, setting up a weekly loss of 3.7%. The S&P high beta stocks broke the 50 dma on 3/3 and are within three points of breaking down through the 200 dma at 111.3. Trading volume spiked higher on Friday.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed Friday at 20,948, down 460 points or 2.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 21,996, setting up a weekly loss of 4.7%. NASDAQ was hit hard early in the week, recovered by Thursday and then gapped open lower Friday. NASDAQ’s trading volume continues to run along the 50 dma. The NASDAQ Composite is now down 10.8% since 1/2/26.
The market is clearly in correction with the S&P stocks down over 7% since the beginning of the year. NASDAQ is down even farther, nearly 11%. IBD’s recommendation for market exposure is “0-20%”. At times like this, it makes sense to build a list of solid stocks that are handling the correction well and may be solid buys even now:
Diversified oil and gas: CVX, DVN, MPC, SU, VLO, and XOM.
Oil and gas services: HAL and SLB.
Odds and ends doing well in spite of this market: CASY, JNJ, and ROST.
Consistently profitable trading in my accounts this year has been limited to non-directional trading of the indices. My long-term SPX condors (> 60 dte) are up 19.2% this year and have not booked a loss since the “tariff correction” of April, 2025. My SPX zero dte trades have booked net gains of $17,150 this year with ten contracts in a $50k account.
If you have any questions or concerns, please contact me. I will be happy to help in any way I can.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6836, up three points for effectively no gain (0.05%). SPX opened the week at 6917, setting up a weekly loss of 1.2%. SPX broke down through the 50 dma yesterday and tried to recover today but could not make it back to the 50 dma. Trading volume ran slightly above average for the week.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 18.0% and closed today at 20.6%. The intraday high this week occurred this morning at 22.4%. A VIX reading at 20-22% isn’t consistent with the recovery we might be tempted to read into today’s trading action.
I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed today at 122.6 for a one percent gain. SPHB opened the week at 122.6, setting up a weekly gain of zero, a flat trading week. Trading volume was above average only on Thursday. SPHB broke its 50 dma early this morning but recovered quickly.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 22,547, down 50 points or -0.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 22,952, setting up a weekly loss of 1.8%. NASDAQ is a long way from recovering its 50 dma at 23,358. NASDAQ’s trading volume fell below the 50 dma today.
The question for the week: Did the S&P 500 index signal a bottom today?
Key facts:
1) Today’s low around 6800 coincides with lows set on February 5 and January 20.
2) SPX lost 136 points yesterday but only gained 80 points at its high today.
3) SPX weakened this afternoon and closed nearly at Thursday’s close.
4) Today’s low in SPX around 6800 is close to the lows set on 1/20 and 2/5.
My conclusion: We would like to read a “finding support and recovering” from this chart. The observations above don’t support that conclusion. Today’s market action could be the first step of recovery, but I wouldn’t risk my money on that premise.
Don’t be spooked. Follow your rules. Discipline is crucial.
