- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1631
The markets were caught today between fears of the next shoe dropping in Europe and some improved economic data here at home. SPX gained $4 to close at $1216 and RUT closed at $716, up $8. Trading volume dropped from yesterday with 2.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading volume dropped 10% on the NYSE and dropped 2% on NASDAQ.
Initial unemployment claims came in at 366k, down from last week's 385k, while continuing unemployment claims held steady at 3.6 million. We seem to be steadily holding the initial claims number below 400k - a welcome trend. The PPI for November increased 0.3% and capicity utilization remained flat at 77.8%. The Empire Manufacturing Index increased to 9.53 for December from last month's 0.61. All in all, this wasn't resoundingly good news, but it wasn't bad either.
I chose to close the 1350/1360 call spreads in my Jan SPX iron condor today. I was able to take them off for a small gain and basically lock in a reasonably high probability gain for this position. The SPX Jan 970/980 put spreads are far OTM and should expire worthless unless we have a global meltdown of some kind. Assuming the put spreads expire worthless, that will result in a 13.5% gain for this condor - not a bad start for 2012.
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1650
Italy's latest bond auction further reinforced the traders' concerns over European debt with bond yields reaching 6.5%. The dollar strengthened against the Euro and US stocks dropped again today, although on only slightly higher volume. SPX closed down $14 at $1212 and RUT lost $10 to close at $708. Trading volume in the S&P 500 was slightly up at 3.2 billion shares, still below the 50 dma. Trading volume was flat on the NYSE and up 2% on NASDAQ.
No significant economic data were released today, so the fears about the European debt crisis leading to a global recession appear to be driving the pessimism.
My Jan iron condor on SPX stands at a P/L of +$1,980 with delta = -$2 and theta = +$49, on 20 contracts. The theta/delta ratio is strong; in fact, I am tempted to close this position early and lock in a nice gain. Hmmm.. My directional trades are being run over by this market as my delta neutral trades are making money. It makes a good case for diversifying your strategies.
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1635
Every major market index was down today. It started early with Intel's lowering of its outlook and it appears that as traders reflected on the Euro Summit over the weekend, they lost confidence that anything of substance had been really decided. So the fear that the European debt issues will spread to cause global economic issues is alive and well. SPX shed $19 to close at $1236 and RUT closed at $733, down $12. Institutional money managers appear to be sitting on the sidelines; trading volume was flat to decreased today with 2.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading, unchanged from Friday. Trading volume was down 7% on the NYSE and was down 6% on NASDAQ.
Interestingly, the VIX actually declined today as the markets also declined - is this a bullish divergence? The last three trading sessions have been maddening, steadily retracing the same territory each day. We will hear something from the FOMC tomorrow, but it isn't likely to move markets.
My Jan iron condor on SPX stands at a P/L of +$600 with delta = -$40 and theta = +$99. The call spreads are just outside one standard deviation OTM, so this position is in reasonable shape. The risk is principally on the call spread side since the 970/980 put spreads are very far OTM and thus unlikely to present a problem. The 560/570 put spreads are all that remain of the Dec RUT iron condor position, so they will expire worthless this weekend.
It will be interesting to see if today's divergence in the VIX is foretelling a move back up tomorrow. Of course, given the see saw action of the last several sessions, it is the bulls' turn tomorrow.
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1584
The markets opened up pretty strongly this morning and stayed in the black until after the Fed announcement. SPX closed down $11 at $1226 and RUT lost $15 to close at $718. SPX was as high as $1250 early in the day, but gave it all back in the last couple of hours of trading. Trading volume picked up with 3.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading, but that is still below the 50 day moving average. Trading increased 24% on the NYSE and increased 14% on NASDAQ.
The big news of the day was the FOMC announcement. The Fed made the most positive statements about the economic recovery it has made in quite some time (albeit still modest). But many were expecting a QE III program of some sort and were disappointed. Thus, the markets traded off pretty strongly late in the day. The VIX dropped to 23.3% this morning but then moved up in the afternoon to close at 25.4%. The morning reading was the lowest VIX has been since early August.
My Jan SPX iron condor at 970/980 and 1350/1360 stands at a net gain of $1,400 with position delta = -$8 and position theta = +$77. Today's downward move relieved the pressure on the call spreads, so this position is in pretty good shape. But in this volatile market, that could change quickly. The Euro Watch is still in full swing and any manner of news could swing this market one way or the other very easily.
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1654
The markets apparently liked what they were hearing out of Europe today (although there was a paucity of specifics), and so the buying commenced. SPX gained $21 to close at $1255; ironically, SPX gave up almost the same amount yesterday as it gained today. At one time, that would be considered an unusual coincidence, but not for 2011; this kind of volatility has become the norm. RUT behaved similarly to SPX, gaining $23 to close at $745. The VIX trimmed back to 26.4%, about where it was a week ago, after nearly reaching 31% yesterday. In spite of today's big gains, trading volume declined with 2.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today; trading at the NYSE was down 13% and volume was down 10% on NASDAQ.
Economic data was minimal today with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey coming in at 67.7 for December, up slightly from November's 64.1.
My Jan iron condor on SPX stands at break-even with delta = -$45 and theta = +$87 on 20 contracts. The RUT 560/570 put spreads are all that remain of the December position, so they will most likely expire worthless next weekend.
So the European Watch continues; the next market moving news may well be some credit rating downgrade this weekend or next week. I believe this market remains a risky place for directional trades; use tight stops.
We had our first snow today here in Chicago - I offer that for those of you in warmer climates so you can gloat. Enjoy the weekend.
