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Many market observers are giddy about the market's positive gains since the first of the year, which I suppose is understandable after the year we had in 2011. But the last several trading sessions are setting up as another range bound trading situation. For the last nine trading days, we have stayed roughly in the range of $1310 to $1330. Note that on several of those days we have spiked down below $1300 and up above $1330 one day, but in every case, the S&P 500 has been pulled back into the range. SPX ranged from $1307 to $1321 today before closing down less than one dollar at $1312. RUT was flat on the day at $793. Trading volume was up today, probably due to end of the month "window dressing". 3.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 traded and trading on the NYSE was up 21%. Trading on NASDAQ was up 6%.
Today's dose of economic data weighed on the market. The Case Schiller Housing Price Index dropped again in November, this time down 3.7%. The Chicago PMI came in at 60.2 for January, down from December's 62.2 and Consumer Confidence also dropped to 61.1 in January from the earlier 64.8. The market is in an interesting place. It appears to be trapped: on the one side we have good corporate earnings and some economic data that isn't worsening and appears to be slowly healing (today's data withstanding). On the other hand, the economic data in the states isn't anything to write home about; our political wrangling and political malfeasance are at all time highs (how is it possible that Congress is actually considering legislation to make it illegal for Congressmen to trade on inside information? How did we get here?); and Europe hovers over everything like a black cloud.
But this ugly picture works well for delta neutral trades. My Feb RUT iron condor stands at a P/L of +$2,520 with delta = -$60 and theta = +$92. The Mar condor stands at a P/L of +$240 with delta = -$39 and theta = +$83. Most likely, we will close the Feb call spreads this Friday (Two Sigma Rule) and allow the put spreads to expire worthless.
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The S&P futures were in the red this morning based on the same old European debt problems - and throw Greece's bond negotiations in for good measure. SPX opened and dropped to $1300 by mid-morning. But then it stabilized and traders started buying, steadily pulling the markets up to minimal losses for the day. SPX closed down $3 at $1313 and RUT closed down $6 at $792. The VIX spiked up in the morning, but dropped back to close at 19.4%, up less than a percentage point. Trading volume in the S&P 500 fell off to 2.6 billion shares, well below the 50 dma at 2.9B.
Personal Income was reported as rising 0.5% in December, a big improvement over the previous month's 0.1% increase. But personal spending was flat in December. We will get the Chicago PMI and the Case Schiller housing price index tomorrow; those numbers could be market-moving, but at this point it is hard to imagine much movement either way. The balancing act between the bulls and the bears is pretty close to even, but slightly tilted in favor of the bulls. It seems that when either group gets the upper hand, the buying or selling sets in to pull the market back. SPX has managed to stay above $1310 for eight sessions now, but has only closed above $1320 once. And note how the trading volume has steadily fallen off since SPX broke $1330 as the intraday high on Thursday. Stocks are cheap by many measures, but fear stemming out of Europe seems to be holding the market in check.
My Feb RUT condor stands at a P/L of +2,320 with delta = -$63 and theta = +$100. The Mar RUT iron condor stands at a P/L of +$200 with delta = +$200 with delta = -$34 and theta = +$79. This meandering market is good for these trades.
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The markets opened this morning and continued yesterday's rally after Bernanke promised another couple of years of cheap money, but the enthusiasm quickly faded. Markets turned down late morning and spent the balance of the day in the red. SPX lost $8 to close at $1318 and RUT lost $3 to close at $793. Since the first of the year, the averages have made strong gains, so much so that many technical indicators have been flashing overbought. This has left many analysts predicting a correction while the markets pushed higher. There are many factors at play here, pushing the markets in conflicting directions. Late January after a strong bullish run is often a positive time for the markets due to institutions wanting to show clients they are long the bull market and haven't been left behind. And, Bernanke's promise of easy money certainly helps. And the overall market averages are cheap by most any historical measure. But then we have the prospect of a Greek default and the rest of the European sovereign debt crisis weighing us down. And we may have a large number of traders who are anxious to lock in some of the gains they have enjoyed so far this year, especially after the beating most institutions and hedge funds took last year. And we have the historical pattern of a decline in late January after the so-called Santa Claus rally. The bottom line is that it is awfully hard to predict the end result of this confluence of forces.
Trading volume actually increased a bit today with 3.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading; volume increased 4% on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. The VIX increased about a third of a percentage point today, closing at 18.6%. But intraday, the VIX actually dipped below 17%. It doesn't appear that the large institutional traders are too concerned about a correction. Should I be reassured or worried by that measure?
Today's dose of economic data wasn't terrible, but it wasn't inspiring either. Initial unemployment claims reported out at 377k, up from last week's 356k. Durable goods orders rose 3.0% in December, but they rose 4.3% in November. And new home sales declined from November's 314k to 307k in December. So our economy seems to be just plugging along with minimal progress, but not sinking further either.
My February RUT iron condor at 590/600 and 840/850 stands at a P/L of +$2,080 with position delta = -$72 and position theta = +$97 on 20 contracts. It will be interesting to see how the balance of January plays out.
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Fourth quarter GDP came in at an annualized growth rate of 2.8%, but analysts were expecting 3.2%, so that set the markets off into negative territory from the beginning today. SPX spent most of the day in the red and then made a run upward during the last hour, but could not hold a positive gain for the day. SPX closed down $2 at $1316 and RUT closed up $6 at $799. Trading volume was down with 3.0 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks changing hands. Trading volume was down 6% on the NYSE and was down 14% on NASDAQ.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey reported a value of 75.0 for January, up modestly from December's 74.0.
My Feb iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of +$1600 with delta = -$98 and theta = +$110. RUT's relative strength versus SPX is a bullish sign for this market, but not so good for our Feb 840/850 call spreads. As of the close today, we could have closed our call spreads for a small gain or break-even and the delta of the 840 calls is only 12, so this position is still pretty solid. Many analysts expect the last couple of days of January trading to be bullish due to institutional buying - we'll see what Monday brings.
Have a great weekend.
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As the markets have continued this slow steady climb into 2012, many analysts keep looking for a correction, but the markets just keep rising. Bernanke then throws the markets a huge surprise today by announcing that the Fed will maintain these record low interest rates through 2014 - wow! This is unprecedented. Fed watchers were shocked the last time the FOMC announced a specific time period for interest rates remaining low - why extend that by two more years? Now the question you have to ask is: what does the Fed see down the road that required such a surprising announcement? Do they see more danger from Europe's sovereign debt crisis than the markets have priced into stocks? Do they see a new recession here in the states or just continued slow to minimal economic growth?
SPX began the day in red ink, but broke out to the upside in the early afternoon, closing at $1326, up $11. RUT gained $7 to close at $796. VIX dropped almost another percentage point to 18.3% and spiked down as low as 17.2% intraday. Trading volume jumped up today with 3.4 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading; trading volume rose 16% on the NYSE and rose 20% on NASDAQ. When the Fed gives you free money, you have no choice but to buy.
My Feb RUT condor stands at a P/L of +$1,780 with delta = -$86 and theta = +$102. The 840/850 call spreads remain at about one standard deviation OTM, so no adjustment is necessary - yet.
It appears that we are in one of those classic situations where everyone believes a correction is in order and that the problems in Europe have to contain our market's advance. The market usually finds a way to confound the majority viewpoint...
