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SPX closed today almost exactly at yesterday's close. So support at about $1215 is holding thus far, with overhead resistance at $1290. Trading volume fell off today and the SPX opened and closed almost exactly at the same price, thus the classic doji candlestick, a sign of indecision or balance between the bulls and the bears. SPX closed at $1216, down less than a dollar; RUT gained $1 to close at $719. Given that next week is a shortened holiday week, continuing to trade sideways at lower volume may be what we can expect. Trading volume on the S&P 500 dropped to 3.0 billion shares; trading on the NYSE dropped 1%, but trading on NASDAQ decreased 21%.
RUT settled at $720.35. Thus, the Nov 660/670 put spreads and 790/800 call spreads expired worthless for a gain of $1,460 on 20 contracts, or 9% on the capital at risk. This brings the Flying With The Condor™ track record for this year to a 35% gain. The Dec condor position on RUT at 560/570 and 830/840 stands at a gain of $980 with delta = -$6 and theta = +$97. This is a great market environment for delta neutral trading, but directional traders are having a tough time.
Enjoy the weekend.
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Markets opened weakly this morning and the selling intensified as the day wore on. SPX lost $21 to close at $1216 while RUT lost $11 to close at $719. Trading volume rose again today with 3.6 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading hands, right at the 50 dma. Trading was also up on the NYSE and NASDAQ, 9% and 14%, respectively. The VIX rose over 36% but pulled back to close at 34.5%. SPX traded down as low as $1209 before recovering to close at $1216, just below the $1218 close about a week ago. Will support hold?
Economic data wasn't bad, so I don't think that was the underlying cause; the European debt crisis is overshadowing everything. Unemployment claims were once again under 400k, at 388k; continuing claims dropped to 3.6 million. Housing starts were flat at 628k and building permits increased from 589k to 653k. But the Philadelphia Fed survey dropped to 3.6 from the already weak 8.7.
I am allowing the 790/800 call and 660/670 put spreads of my Nov iron condor on RUT to enter expiration and expire worthless. Both spreads are over three standard deviations OTM. This results in a gain of $1,460 on 20 contracts or 9% on capital at risk. The Dec RUT condor position stands at a P/L of +$860 with delta = -$12 and theta = +$90.
So now we wait to see if the gloomy mood continues tomorrow; the SPX is now down over 3% for 2011. Those predictions of $1450 for year end are looking pretty optimistic.
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Today's close on SPX is almost exactly where we started this year. SPX closed at $1258, up $6. RUT gained $10 to close at $743. Trading volume was up from yesterday but still well below average. Over 2.7 billion shares of the S&P 500 traded today; the 50 dma is 3.5 billion shares. Trading volume was up 19% on the NYSE and was up 22% on NASDAQ. Even though some positive news was coming out of Italy today, European markets traded down; it was only after Europe's markets closed that our markets started trading higher, albeit weakly.
The Producer price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3% in October while retail sales increased 0.5% in October. The Empire Manufacturing Index edged up into positive territory at 0.61 for Nov (-8.48 in Oct). Although this data wasn't great, it wasn't terrible either. It appears consistent with the conclusion that we are not headed for a double dip recession, but we aren't recovering rapidly either. The bottom line for traders is that we remain in a sideways trading range.
My November iron condor on RUT stands nearly perfectly delta neutral with a P/L of +$1,120 with delta = -$4 and theta = +$406. The Dec condor stands at a P/L of -$140 with delta = -$41 and theta = +$129.
Did you notice AAPL bouncing up today? That was because I closed my AAPL spread for a loss yesterday...
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The markets were trading weakly sideways most of the day but traded off strongly in the last hour based on Moodys downgrading several German banks and Fitch warning that US banks may be downgraded if the Euro Zone debt issues aren't handled promptly. SPX dropped $21 to $1237 and RUT closed at $730, down $13. Trading volume jumped up with 3.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading was up 14% on the NYSE and up 16% on NASDAQ. The VIX was down to 30% early in the day, but spiked up to 33.5% by the close.
The CPI rose 0.1% in October; industrial production rose 0.7% and capacity utilization rose to 77.8% in October from last month's 77.3%. These are pretty anemic numbers, but they aren't terrible either - pretty much the same picture that the economic data have been painting for the past couple of months.
The markets remain trapped in this trading range. Larry McMillan put it best, "The market has become a volatile, trendless entity." But watch out; at times like these, the markets often break out very strongly one way or the other.
My Nov condor stands at a P/L of +$1,120 with delta = $2 and theta = +$885. It appears likely that I will allow both the call and put spreads to go into expiration to expire worthless. The Dec position stands at a P/L of +$380 with delta = -$27 and theta = +$115.
I am out at the Traders Expo and hope to see many of you there. Please look me up.
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The markets traded downward today on reduced volume, again based on worries about European debt issues. SPX lost $12 to close at $1252 and RUT closed at $733, down $12 on the day. Trading volume was down across the board with 2.3 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today. Trading volume was down 11% on the NYSE and down 13% on NASDAQ. Volume hit the 50 day moving average on the big down day last Wednesday and has steadily dropped every day since then. Again, we are seeing signs of a market trapped in a sideways trading range with many traders waiting on the sidelines for a "sign". The absence of any significant economic reports probably helped this largely choppy, somewhat downward trading day. The VIX moved up during the trading day to 33% but closed at 31%, a bit above yesterday's close at 30%.
My Nov RUT iron condor position stands at a P/L of +$820 with position delta = +$19 and theta = +$390. The Dec condor stands at a P/L of +$440 with position delta = -$26 and theta = +$97.
So now we return to Euro watching...
