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SPX set a new all-time high Friday on low trading volume, so I was anxious to see what might happen today: fall back below $1800 or head higher? It wasn't either; SPX lost only $2 to close at $1802. RUT was unchanged at $1125. Trading volume also remained low with 2.0 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading rose 3% on the NYSE and rose 4% on NASDAQ. So, you have a choice of how to interpret the data. If you are a convinced bull, then we are just taking a breather and you would note that SPX remained above the pivotal $1800 mark. But if you are a skeptic or outright bearish, then you hang your hat on the low levels of trading volume. It is hard to be too enthusiastic about break-outs on low volume.
I saw a survey this morning that showed 51% believing the Dow will break $17,000 before year-end - Wow! Is that a classic contrarian signal?
The pending home sales were reported as declining 0.6% in October, which probably is pretty normal for this time of year. And it is a big improvement over the 4.6% decline in September. Tomorrow brings the building permits report, the Case Schiller Housing Price Index and consumer confidence.
My Dec condor is plodding sideways with a net P/L of +$600 or 4.3% with position delta on 20 contracts of -$140 and position theta of +$155.
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The markets set new all-time highs today with SPX closing up $9 at $1805 and RUT gaining $5 to close at $1125. Both closes break previous highs set earlier this year. And, perhaps more significantly, RUT has finally caught back up with SPX. But, on the other hand, these new highs are being set on low trading volume. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks dropped to two billion shares and trading volume on the NYSE declined 8%. But trading on NASDAQ increased 2%.
The VIX declined to 12.3%, down almost a half point. No significant economic news was reported today. In my opinion, the hard economic data doesn't support this bull market. It is premised on FOMC support. So I suppose we should party while we can. But watch for when the Fed even hints at pulling out. That could get ugly, but that may be well after the new year, so Merry Christmas!
Enjoy your weekend.
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The markets opened down this morning and chopped sideways until early afternoon when they moved into the red and stayed there. SPX traded down $4 and closed at $1788, while RUT lost $6, closing at $1101. This pattern of RUT trading weaker than SPX is continuing. Trading volume was flat to lower with 2.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading volume was down 2% on the NYSE and decreased 5% on NASDAQ.
Volatility moved up a bit again today with the VIX closing at 13.4%, up about one third of a point.
No economic data were reported today. Tomorrow brings retail sales, existing home sales and the CPI.
My Dec iron condor stands at a net P/L of +$1,800 or +13% with position delta = -$38 and position theta = +$136 (20 contracts).
It appears that the bears are gaining more control in this market over the past couple of days. But the pullbacks this year have generally been taken as opportunities to buy. So I would be cautious about playing to the downside.
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It was a banner day on Wall Street for the bulls. The one minute chart was near ideal: a slow steady climb all day long with the major indexes closing at or near the highs of the day. SPX gained $14 to close at $1796 and RUT closed at $1120, up $20. Today was unusual in one respect - RUT outperformed SPX, gaining 1.8% as compared to SPX's 0.8% gain. However, trading volume didn't underscore the move, with 2.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading (this is just at the 50 dma). Trading on the NYSE was up 5%, but trading volume on NASDAQ was down 2%.
Traders breathed a sign of relief and the VIX declined almost three quarters of a point to 12.7%.
Initial unemployment claims edged down another week to 323k, but continuing unemployment claims rose 66 thousand to 2.9 million. The Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.2% in October, as compared to a 0.1% drop last month. The Philadelphia Fed survey collapsed in November to 6.5 from the previous report at 19.8.
Today's price action is all too familiar to traders this year. From the high on Monday to the low yesterday, the market dropped $25, but then over half of that loss was recovered in one day. A trader could have successfully bought all pull backs this year and been very successful. But the problem has been determining when the pull back is over - the reversals have been very sudden and dramatic. There have not been any slow consolidations presaging a reversal. If a trader had simply bought the SPX January 2nd and then closed his eyes and ears, he would be sitting pretty today. But you don't see many, if any, traders with smiles - this year's market has been a very tough market to read and trade. Today's price action is just one more example.
My Dec iron condor stands at a net P/L of +$740 on 20 contracts or +5.4% with position delta = -$113 and position theta = +$149.
What will happen tomorrow? Are the bulls now firmly in charge? That is hard to predict. I will be watching to see if SPX can set a new all-time high and hold it into the close.
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Was today's minor pull back just a blip on the bullish screen or the beginning of the correction everyone is predicting? Hard to tell. But it is rare that the market does what everyone is expecting. SPX dropped off $7 to close at $1792 and RUT fell $9 to close at $1107. The VIX rose almost one point to 13.1%. That remains a low level of volatility, but it bears watching. Trading volume fell today, which serves to lend less credence to the drop in the indexes. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks dropped to 2.1 billion shares while trading on the NYSE decreased 13%. Trading on NASDAQ dropped 4%. SPX traded sideways all day until about 3 pm ET, when it began to fall. It recovered only slightly (about $3) a few minutes before the close.
I always compare the advances or declines on SPX versus RUT. And lately, that signal has generally been bearish. SPX has been setting new all-time highs, but RUT has not set a new high for about three weeks. Today, both indexes pulled back modestly, but RUT pulled back more (0.4% vs. 0.8%). It is fair to conclude that the market's bullishness is at least moderating.
The only economic news today was the NAHB Housing Market Index, which came in unchanged for November at 54.
My Dec iron condor stands at a net P/L of +$1,160 or +8.4% with position delta = -$62 and position theta = +$140 (20 contracts).
The drop in the markets this afternoon was attributed to Carl Icahn's bearish comments at a conference. This is one more indicator of the general nervousness of this market. It moves on the most trivial of data.
