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SPX closed yesterday at $1868, just below support at $1870. Today SPX traded down as low as $1854 before rebounding to close at $1868 for a gain of one dollar on the day. Earlier today, I was watching the tape and thought, "support is truly broken". But later I had to conclude, "maybe not". Hence the title of today's blog, Clinging To Support. RUT posted a gain for the first time in six sessions, rising $4 to close at $1191. Volatility was largely unchanged with the VIX closing at 14.5%. Trading volume in the S&P 500 was flat at two billion shares. Trading volume on the NYSE dropped 4% and volume decreased 14% on NASDAQ.
The long lower shadow on the SPX candlestick suggests support was found in the neighborhood of $1850, the highs from December 31st and later in mid-January. So maybe we wander sideways for a while? Is that the form of the pull back this time?
I came across an interesting report on margin debt this afternoon. Stock account margin debt is now around $460 billion, exceeding the peak of approximately $380 billion set in 2000 and hit again in 2007. So we have yet another set of data confirming this bull market should be tired. But all of this data ignores one big difference as we compare past markets to today's market - the FOMC.
So maybe the bull has more life in him...
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SPX traded up at the open, and traded up from there to its intraday high at $1882 by late morning, but slowly traded downward over the rest of the trading session. SPX broke support at $1870, trading as low as $1864, and then closing at $1868, down $10 on the day. But I regard this as a "technical break" - yes, it broke support at $1870, but support and resistance levels should be regarded as fuzzy bands of price. I will wait until tomorrow to see if we really broke support. But RUT has been predicting a pull back for some time now, trading downward each day as SPX bounced off support and remained largely unchanged. Today RUT traded off more than SPX, down $13, closing at $1187. This brings RUT close to support at $1182, the high from January 22nd and the break-out of late February.
Trading volume in the S&P 500 was up a bit from yesterday with 2.0 billion shares today but remains below the 50 dma at 2.3 billion shares. Trading volume on the NYSE dropped 7%, but volume rose 19% on NASDAQ.
Volatility rose modestly with the VIX rising almost one point to 14.8% - as Goldilocks said, not too hot, but not too cold.
Let's reflect on the past ten days of trading: Last Monday, we dropped about $12 on SPX because of the Ukraine/Russia problems, but all of that loss and then some was recovered the next day with a $25 rise. For the past three sessions, SPX has tested support at $1870, and with the exception of today, has held that support level well. But at the same time RUT has now traded lower five days in succession. Hmm... Is RUT telling us something? Or should we focus on SPX's relative strength? My conclusion is that the bulls have demonstrated that they are not about to go away quietly. Having the Fed's support is intoxicating. Perhaps the big players are just taking some of their higher risk assets off the table (RUT).
The dividend yield of the S&P 500 at 1.8% is near record lows - you have to go back to August of 2000 to see slightly lower yields at 1.1%. So the need for a "pause that refreshes" is hard to dispute. But I am inclined to think a huge correction is unlikely simply because of the Fed's ongoing support. It seems to me we have a tug of war with very powerful forces on both sides. Maybe some sideways or even slightly downward trading is the most likely answer? I am still largely playing trades sideways to slightly bullish, but I am protecting my downside as well. One thing about this market is clear - it can break and run hard in either direction very quickly.
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All anyone could talk about yesterday was the coming jobs report. Estimates ran as low as 85k, but very few exceeded the actual reported number of 175k. The Labor Force Participation rate remains at historic lows, but at least it didn't decrease farther. The unemployment rate blipped up to 6.7%. All in all, one would have thought it was off to the races for the bulls, and it was, for a few minutes. SPX bounced off support at $1870 around 11 am ET, but strengthened thereafter to close at $1878, up one dollar for the day. RUT lost one dollar to close at $1203. VIX opened lower at 13.5% but ended the day at 14.1%, close to unchanged from yesterday.
Doji candlesticks appeared today on both the SPX and the RUT charts. This underscores the relative balance between the bulls and bears that we have seen over the past several sessions. Consider today's session; the bulls took off on a strong jobs report this morning, but were immediately pulled downward by the bears. SPX hit $1870 and the bulls came back to the party and pushed it back up to end the day basically unchanged. I think it is important to note RUT's contrasting behavior; RUT has now decreased for the last three days. Admittedly, it hasn't dropped very far, but it still makes me wonder. At a minimum, it supports the sideways trading range we have been observing.
I will be interested to see what Monday brings.
Enjoy your weekend.
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A report of declining exports from China came out over the weekend and caused Asian markets to trade down last evening. That continued into the western markets today with SPX opening weakly and breaking down through support at $1870 to reach $1867 late morning before bouncing. SPX strengthened all day and hit its high for the day at $1878 just before close at $1877, down $1. RUT lost $3 to close at $1201. VIX spiked up as high as 15.3%, but settled down as the market strengthened and closed unchanged at 14.2%. Trading volume fell off markedly today with 1.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading volume on the NYSE dropped off 15% and trading decreased 3% on NASDAQ.
The hammer candlestick on SPX is consistent with the recent dojis. Every time the bears manage to pull SPX lower over the past few trading sessions, the bulls come in and bid it back up. Today was an exception in that the $1870 support level was pierced before the bulls regained control. The hammer at the top of a rising trend could be a sign of the underlying bullish strength, but it may also be significant that the bulls could only manage to get back to the opening price by the end of the day.
I also noted a continuation of the pattern we have seen now for four trading sessions: SPX manages to close close to unchanged while RUT slowly declines. That could be a sign of traders taking their profits in the small cap stocks they consider most at risk in a decline. In any case, all that may confidently be concluded is that the bulls and bears remain relatively well balanced at this point. We remain at a tipping point. Be cautious.
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As one might have expected after such a huge run yesterday, the markets traded largely sideways today. SPX closed at $1874, unchanged on the day after trading as low as $1871 just after the open and then again 15 minutes before the close. RUT gave back $3 to close at $1206. Volatility shrank a bit with the VIX decreasing about two tenths of a point to 13.9%.
ADP's private employment report was released with 139 thousand new jobs, up from last month's 127k. This report has analysts speculating on the jobs report due out Friday morning. The ISM services index reported out at 51.6 for February, down from January's 54.0.
Trading volume also fell off from yesterday with 2.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading; the 50 dma = 2.3B. Trading dropped 13% on the NYSE and decreased 8% on NASDAQ.
The markets traded off a bit after the release of the Fed's Beige Book, the minutes from the last meeting. But then they recovered into the close. There wasn't much real news in the minutes; most Fed districts reported moderate to modest growth. A few mentioned the weather as a hindrance to growth, especially in the northeast.
The markets are at an odd juncture. Most measures from the price charts remain bullish, but it has been a long bullish run. Many traders are predicting a correction. But this scene has been playing out since before the first of the year with many doomsayers on CNBC and in the news. But the bottom line is that those who have stayed long this market since January of 2013 have profited nicely - but they must have been asleep for all of these sudden drops and rebounds (or on Valium). That probably explains why very few traders matched the S&P 500's +30% performance last year.
