Concern about the Russia/Ukraine conflict appeared to cause traders to take profits and look for safety. SPX closed down $14 at $1846 and RUT closed at $1176, down $7. As one might expect, the VIX spiked upward two points to close at 16%. At these levels of volatility, the market is on alert for lower prices, but this is still well short of the 18%+ levels that characterize the early stages of pull backs and corrections. Trading volume dropped off from Friday with 2.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading declined 12% on the NYSE and declined even more on NASDAQ at -17%.
The ISM manufacturing index reported a gain from 51.3 to 53.2 in February, but construction spending slowed at +0.1% in January as compared to a +1.5% gain in December. No significant economic news is due tomorrow. Wednesday brings the Fed's Beige book, ADP employment numbers, and the ISM services index. The weekly unemployment claims numbers come out Thursday, and the jobs report comes out Friday morning.
Markets forecast the future, so it isn't any surprise that the news from Ukraine is causing some angst. Depending on the turn of events there this week, these economic reports may not be terribly relevant to the market. The fact that today's market drop was somewhat measured and occurred with lower volume are positive indicators. But each day will be a new market.
My March iron condor has been adjusted and repositioned several times; at this point I have put spreads at 1120/1130 and call spreads at 1200/1210. It is a tight position as we move into the last two weeks of the expiration month. Most likely I will be taking a loss this month; the several adjustments have taken their toll. But the game isn't over yet.
Down On Low Volume
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- Written by Dr. Duke
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