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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 4840, up 59 points or 1.2%. SPX opened this holiday shortened week at 4772, setting up a weekly gain of 1.4%, with most of that gain coming today. Trading volume ran at or slightly above the 50-day moving average (dma) this week. Today’s trading volume seems somewhat weak for a gap opening higher this morning and such a strong gain.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 14.1%,
rose on Wednesday’s decline, but then dropped yesterday and today to close
at 13.3%.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 192, unchanged for the week. This is a much weaker chart than SPX or NASDAQ. IWM hit its December high at 205 on 12/27 but remains over six percent below that high. These are the high beta stocks that should be leading a true “risk on” bullish run.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 15,311, up 255 points or 1.7%. Surprisingly, this remains well below NASDAQ’s all-time high at 16,212, set on 11/22/2021. NASDAQ opened the week at 14,564, setting up a strong weekly gain of 2.7%. Nasdaq gapped open higher the last two mornings, but the trading volume remained rather low, similar to the S&P 500.
The market continues to view any and all positive economic data as supporting the Fed decreasing the discount rate. That makes me very wary of the trading action after the FOMC announcement on 1/31 because I don't see that happening. The Fed has been very clear about reaching two percent inflation rates before lowering the discount rate.
The S&P 500 set a new all-time high today, but NASDAQ remains about six percent below its all-time high. And the Russell 2000, as measured by IWM, remains over six percent below its high from December.
The Russell 2000 normally leads strong bull markets; these are the high beta, “risk on” stocks the large funds play when they see the opportunity to “pile on”. The relatively weak trading volume on both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite should caution us to not get too carried away with bullish euphoria. Given the extreme debt levels and current political dysfunction in our country, there is a non-zero probability of a significant market correction in our future.
Pick your winners carefully. Remain cautious.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 4784, essentially flat, up less than four points or 0.08%. SPX opened the week at 4704, setting up a weekly gain of 1.7%, recovering last week’s losses. Trading volume ran just below the 50-day moving average (dma) all week. This level of trading volume seems lackluster for a bullish week of recovery.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 14.0% and steadily declined all week to close at 12.7%.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 193. This is a much weaker chart than SPX or NASDAQ. IWM opened the week at 193, so while SPX and NASDAQ were recovering last week’s losses, IWM was unchanged. IWM hit its December high at 205 on 12/27 but remains 5.9% below that high. That is not a bullish sign.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed Friday at 14,973, up three points or 0.02%. NASDAQ opened the week at 14,564, setting up a strong weekly gain of 2.8%. With the exception of Monday, trading volume ran below the 50 dma all week.
Traders concluded after the December FOMC meeting that the Fed was planning to begin reducing interest rates during the first quarter. Then the CPI came out this week with an increase of the annual rate of +3.2% up to +3.4%. The initial response was a large decline on Thursday, but the market recovered intraday.
The Santa Claus rally, developed by Yale Hirsch of the The Stock Trader’s Almanac, follows the trading of the last five days in December together with the first two trading days in January. Santa Claus didn't visit Wall Street this year, declining 1.1%. The Stock Trader’s Almanac also follows the First Five Days of January and the January Barometer for the full month of January. The First Five Days indicator also failed this year with a decline of 0.4%. Now we wait on the January Barometer to give us a clue for the nature of this year's market. The strongest bullish signal occurs when all three January indicators are positive. When we see a positive gain for the entire month of January, we have an 84% track record of this preceding a bullish year.
Another Stock Trader’s Almanac measure to watch is whether the December lows are broken during the first quarter; when that happens, the probability of a bearish year increases.
The S&P 500 has now recovered all of last week’s losses and set a new high. NASDAQ has recovered much of its losses but remains below the previous highs. The Russell 2000 isn’t even close to recovering its recent losses. I am not feeling very confident that the bulls can carry this market. Be cautious.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) posted a record-breaking day on Wednesday after the FOMC announcement, but settled a bit on Thursday and Friday, closing yesterday at 4719, essentially unchanged. SPX opened the week at 4593, setting up a 2.7% gain for the week. Trading volume spiked up to 5.6 billion shares yesterday, partly due to quadruple witching, but trading volume was up to 3.8 billon shares on Thursday, with the 50-day moving average (dma) at 2.5 billion shares. Many large traders were taking profits.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 13.1% and declined to close at 12.3% yesterday, although VIX did move as high as 12.7% on Thursday. VIX has not been this low since the beginning of 2020.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed yesterday at 197, down almost two points, just under one percent. IWM opened the week at 187, setting up a strong weekly gain of 5.3%. IWM gapped open over three percent on Thursday morning.
The NASDAQ Composite index was slightly more bullish than the S&P 500 this week, closing up Friday at 14,814, up 52 points or 0.4%. NASDAQ opened the week at 14,340, setting up a weekly gain of 3.3%. Trading volume ran above the 50 dma all week and was pushed higher today by quadruple witching, but trading volume on NASDAQ was over eight billion shares both Thursday and Friday.
The market has been on a strong run since October 30th, nearly straight up with several gap openings. Traders were apprehensive as the FOMC announcement neared but traded strongly higher on the announcement. The pause in rate hikes was widely anticipated, but the key data were the so-called dot plots of the committee members, which were forecasting two to three rate cuts in 2024. The end result was a huge day in the markets on Wednesday, but that was followed by profit taking on Thursday and Friday as the excitement faded.
It is helpful to step back and study the big picture for a moment. I may be alone, but I have been beaten up by this market over the past two years. It wears on you and can lead to a pessimistic outlook.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite both hit their all-time highs in late 2021 and remain about 2% and 9%, respectively, below those highs. The Russell 2000 is about 20% below its high in November 2021. It may have been choppy, but a large amount of market repair has occurred this year. The slowdown for the bulls over the last two trading sessions may reflect a sobering effect after the Fed excitement upon reflection on some of the strong headwinds facing the market. We have now had two warnings of possible downgrades to our treasury bond debt. We are in a very similar situation to what Greece faced about eight years ago with our debt levels being much higher than our GDP. Congress appears to be completely unaware of this situation. In view of the upcoming election, I don’t expect anyone to touch this third rail and we may reasonably expect a continuation of the bull market into 2024. But I am watching my financial assets carefully.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed Friday at 4697, up nine points or 0.2%, but down one percent for the first week of the new year. Trading volume ran at or just below the 50-day moving average (dma) all week. The bullish run from early November hit its high on 12/28 at 4793 and has now declined two percent from that high.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the new year at 13.2% and closed at 13.4% Friday after spiking as high as 14.6% earlier on Friday.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed yesterday at 193, down less than one point on Friday, but down 3.1% for the first week of the new year. IWM hit its high in the most recent bullish move at 205 on 12/27 and is now down nearly six percent from that high. IWM broke support at 196 and closed just above the next support level around 192.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed Friday at 14,524, up 14 points or 0.09%. NASDAQ opened the week at 14,874, setting up a weekly loss of 2.4%. Trading volume ran slightly above the 50 dma all week. NASDAQ closed near support on Friday and the next support level is near the 50 dma at 14,162.
The strong bull market since early November was primarily based on traders’ expectations for the FOMC to lower interest rates in 2024. The so-called dot plots of the committee members that accompanied the Fed announcement in December were forecasting two to three rate cuts in 2024. Since then, the enthusiasm has faded steadily. The release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting this week threw cold water on any rate cuts early in 2024. Committee discussion was hopeful that further hikes would not be necessary, but several committee members were concerned that the inflation rate may not be fully constrained. That took the steam out of the bulls’ sails and contributed to the bearish trading to start the new year.
The Santa Claus rally, coined by Yale Hirsch in 1972 (founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac), describes a common bullish trend for the last five trading days in December and the first two trading days in January. The Santa Claus rally took a pass this year, declining 1.1%.
The Stock Trader’s Almanac also follows the First Five Days of January and the January Barometer for the full month of January. All three measures comprise the January Trifecta; when all three are positive, the S&P 500 has been positive for the year over 90% of the time. The Santa Claus rally failed, and the First Five Days is looking like a second failure, with four days done and the market down one percent. The track record of the January Barometer by itself boasts an accuracy of 84%.
Friday’s intraday trading was generally more bearish with highs set early and most of the subsequent trading trending lower. But the market managed a positive finish for the day. I am left with a mixed review for the 2024 market.
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) took a breather for most of the week, showed some life on Thursday and then powered upward today, closing at 4555, up 27 points or +0.6%. Trading volume spiked up to 3.5 billion shares yesterday but settled down to just above the 50-day moving average (dma) at 2.4 billion shares today.
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 13.1% and traded mostly sideways and slightly lower to close at 12.6% today. It appears that the traders are becoming more comfortable in treating this as bull market.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 184.9, up over five points, just under 3%. IWM opened the week at 178.5, setting up a very strong weekly gain of 3.6%. IWM has been very weak during this bullish surge since the first of November, but it came to life today, finally breaking above its 200 dma today. The 50 dma is at 173, over 6% below the 200 dma.
The NASDAQ Composite index was much more tentative than the S&P 500, closing at 14,305, up 79 points or 0.6%. NASDAQ opened the week at 14,239 and closed today at 14,125 , setting up a weekly gain of only a half percent. Trading volume ran above the 50 dma for the last three days and peaked at about 5.5 billion shares for the past two days; the 50 dma is 4.5 billion shares.
The market has been on a strong run since October 30th, nearly straight up with several gap openings. Everything slowed this week and culminated in a very strong bullish day for the markets. The most bullish signal today was the recovery of the Russell 2000. Russell has been trading very weakly all through this bullish run – until today, when it ran up three percent and tallied a four percent gain for the week.
Bond yields and comments from any member of the FOMC have contributed to recent price volatility. The slowing of the PCE price index probably contributed to the bullish run today. Traders are looking for signs that might cause the Feds to at least not raise rates further, but hopefully signal a rate decrease early next year. That may be wishful thinking.
