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Positive economic data out of China and cooling of the rhetoric about Syria gave the market reasons to trade higher today. SPX gained $12 to close at $1684. RUT traded upward as well, closing at $1056 for a $10 gain. VIX dropped a little over one point to close at 14.5%. And these gains occurred on higher trading volume with 2.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading; trading increased 15% on the NYSE and increased 8% on NASDAQ. Strong increases on higher trading volume are good signs for the bulls.
SPX gapped open upward this morning and sliced through resistance at $1680. Yesterday's trading broke out above the 50 dma, and today's trading left the 50 dma in the dust. If one draws a trend line on SPX from mid-November of last year to the present, touching all of the pullbacks except the low on June 24, then we won't be back on that bullish trend until around $1710 on SPX. If SPX peaks and pulls back before reaching $1710, beware of the head and shoulders reversal pattern that will result.
This is a light week for economic data. Not much happens tomorrow and then Thursday brings the unemployment claims. Friday is the heaviest day this week with retail sales, the PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Now that we have Syria out of the way, the news will probably start to focus on the debt ceiling and spending arguments. Allow me one observation on the debt ceiling debate: if my son were spending more than he earned and he hit the credit limit on his credit card, the solution wouldn't be to raise the credit limit on his card.
As you consider any new trades based on this bullish euphoria, remember that the FOMC meeting and announcement are next week. September 18 is likely to be a volatile trading day.
My Sept RUT condor position continues to be very strong with P/L of +$2,360 (+14%) with position delta = -$4 and position theta = +$59. Even with RUT's recent strong push upward, the Sept 1120/1130 calls are over two standard deviations OTM.
The higher price volatility of the past few months has many traders feeling a bit paranoid. I see the very bullish signs on the charts, but I still fear some surprise coming out of left field. I will go see my shrink, lie down on the couch and talk about my childhood. Or maybe it would be cheaper to have a glass of wine with dinner and go to bed early. We'll see if those bulls can hold this position.
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Some positive economic news out of China boosted Asian markets and that appeared to spread across the globe. It probably also helped that reports from Washington suggest that a compromise solution to avoid a government shutdown is in the works so the debt and spending debate participants can have more time to craft a solution. I think Fed tapering is effectively priced into the markets with all of the debate over the past couple of months, so I don't think that is a significant risk issue at this time. But that leaves Syria. Is Obama willing to forge ahead without support from Congress or the American people? That risk remains, but may be diminished somewhat. SPX spurted ahead $17, broke through its 50 dma at $1667 and closed at $1672. RUT also traded strongly higher, tacking on $17 to close at $1046. RUT opened right at its 50 dma at $1033 and never looked back.
The cautionary note on the day was that volatility remained pretty high in spite of these bullish advances. VIX only decreased about two tenths of point to 15.6%. Everyone isn't totally relaxed and comfortable in trader-land even with a one percent gain on the day.
My iron condor position on RUT for September stands at a net gain of $2,200 or +13% with position delta = +$10 and position theta = +$73. This position is nearly perfectly delta neutral with ten days to go to expiration.
I think the big question, in view of VIX remaining relatively high, is pretty simple: will today's advances hold tomorrow? Maybe Apple's new iPhones will cause an uncontrolled exuberance in the markets, but I doubt it.
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The markets traded upward strongly today on increased volume. But reasoning why is tough. We are still in the midst of this Syria military action debate (during my lifetime, the "spin" of language has hit its stride - it is no longer "going to war" or "killing people"; it is "military action"). The question of tapering of Fed stimulus is still very much up in the air and that won't be resolved until September 18 (maybe). In the midst of all of this uncertainty, SPX tacked on $13 to close at $1653. It remains ten dollars below the 50 dma, so don't uncork the champagne just yet. RUT followed suit with a nine dollar increase to $1026. RUT's 50 dma is at $1029. Both charts seem to have hammered out solid support at $1630 and $1010, respectively. Is it reasonable to think of those levels as the lows if the Syria action is approved? Maybe, but rational reasoning may be dangerous in this market.
Trading volume bumped upward today with 2.3 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading (2.1B is the 50 dma). Trading was down 10% on the NYSE but up 12% on NASDAQ. Volatility pulled back almost one full point to 15.9% (as measured by the VIX). Volatility remains relatively high, so don't take a nap.
There were no significant economic data reports today. Unemployment claims, the ADP private employment numbers, and the ISM Services index all report tomorrow, with the Nonfarm Payrolls Report, aka, the jobs report, to be released Friday morning before the market opens. We could see a big move in the markets Friday.
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SPX opened higher this morning in spite of a weak jobs report, probably thinking that bolstered the case for tapering (now the market seems ready for tapering). But it quickly reversed and dropped $20 to the low of the day at $1641, based on Putin's comments about supporting Syria. Then it regained its previous highs by noon and traded higher in the early afternoon. But then all of this exuberance appeared to weigh on the markets so it gave it all back with SPX closing flat at $1655. RUT followed suit but managed to close up one dollar at $1030. Volatility also ran higher before settling to close with no change with VIX at 15.8%. All of this occurred with higher trading volume, up to 2.0 billion shares of the S&P 500. Trading volume increased 9% on the NYSE and increased 11% on NASDAQ.
The jobs report came out with 169 thousand new jobs and unemployment dropped a tenth of a percent to 7.3%. But the unemployment drop was principally due to a lowered labor force participation rate. Many analysts viewed the report as mediocre, but probably adequate for the FOMC to justify a beginning to tapering the stimulus programs. Others believe Bernanke will wish to begin tapering before his term runs out, but that doesn't make sense to me. If Bernanke believes stimulus is needed until unemployment drops below 6.5%, then why would he remove stimulus and risk a recession? If he doesn't think stimulus is required with unemployment at 7.3%, why did he specify 6.5% as the target (repeatedly)?
I re-established my Sept condor position with the 940/950 put spreads and that position now stands at a net P/L of +$1,760 or +10% with delta = +$25 and theta =+$99.
Have a great weekend.
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The markets opened strongly upward this morning on expectations that any U.S. incursion into Syria appeared less likely with the Congress getting involved. But then the Speaker of the House backed Obama's plan and the markets tumbled. SPX spurted up to $1651 but was pulled back to close at $1640. However, this still maintained a gain of $7 on the day. RUT behaved similarly, trading up $5 to close at $1016. Trading volume in the S&P 500 stocks jumped up to 2.1 billion shares, just below the 50 dma. Trading volume increased 31% on the NYSE and increased 35% on NASDAQ. But these volume increases reflect the low pre-holiday trading volume more than anything else. VIX decreased about a third of a point to 16.7%, so volatility remains in the moderately high range of 16.5% to 17% where it has been over the past five trading sessions.
The ISM manufacturing index increased a bit to 55.7 in August, up from 55.4. Increased new factory orders were an encouraging aspect of this report if you studied the details. On the other hand, over fifteen billion dollars (about 1%) flowed out of exchange traded funds (ETFs) in August. This reflects the public's worry about this market going into the historically weak part of the year. Many are going to cash. All of the talk about Syria toward the end of the month probably exacerbated this trend.
My September iron condor on RUT only consists of the 1120/1130 call spreads at this point. It is tempting to sell new put spreads but we only have 16 days left until expiration, so it may be safer to sit on the sidelines with our gain.
