- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1892
I was leading a private coaching session this morning and missed the first couple of hours of market activity. Then I checked the indexes on my phone and saw nothing but green. Cool. That hammer candlestick on RUT yesterday was prophetic. But all of that changed over the course of the afternoon. SPX traded as high as $1889 but then declined to $1870 before recovering somewhat to close down $3 at $1876. RUT traded in a similar pattern, but weaker than SPX, to close at $1097, down $11. Volatility remained flat with the VIX unchanged at 13.4%. Trading volume fell off from yesterday with 2.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading; volume declined 8% on the NYSE and dropped off only 1% on NASDAQ.
So the same story we have been watching for several weeks continued today: SPX is trading sideways in a tight range just above the 50 dma, while RUT flirts with its 200 dma. It appears the rotation out of high tech and small caps into safer blue chips is continuing. The fact that SPX has held up so well seems to counter any predictions of a market crash scenario. The low levels of VIX reinforce SPX's relative stability. But RUT and the NASDAQ composite remain weak.
Is this the sideways to weak trend we will have to live with this summer? Is this the "Sell in May" trend?
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1973
Wow! I keep thinking I will become accustomed to this new level of price volatility we have now been seeing in the markets for many months. Once again today, I was on the verge of major surgery on several positions and then the market does an about face. SPX traded as low as $1860 before turning higher to close for a ten point gain at $1878. RUT behaved similarly, but traded down even more strongly to $1093 before recovering to close a dollar higher at $1109. The VIX rose a bit, but ended the day about a half point lower at 13.4%.
Trading volume spurted higher today with 2.4 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Volume rose 12% on the NYSE and increased 33% on NASDAQ. So we had a strong bounce back from the intraday lows on higher volume - a good bullish sign.
The charts are interesting. RUT continues to trade much weaker than SPX. RUT had been treating the 200 dma as support until yesterday when it decisively broke that support level, closing at its low for the day - a very bearish chart. Today's price action was interesting on two fronts: 1) the intraday low was right at the low of the February correction, and 2) today's candlestick is the classic hammer, suggesting a strong support level defined by the end of the lower shadow. This candlestick suggests that the bottom has been found to this latest pull back. The NASDAQ composite was trading similarly, hitting an intraday low about $20 above the long term support level around $4000, but bouncing higher to close at $4068. This recent weakness was almost exclusively driven by RUT and NASDAQ; SPX has held up relatively well. Today, SPX broke the 50 dma at $1865 before bouncing back higher to close at $1878, whereas RUT broke its 200 dma yesterday and remains below that level today even after a strong bounce back higher.
Fortunately, both of my iron condor positions remain profitable after all of these market gyrations.
Sorry I missed my blogs for the past two days. My schedule has been exceptionally busy. My wife is recovering from retinal surgery and that has added a few responsibilities to my list. But the worst of that is behind us. She received an excellent check up today.
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1940
The FOMC announcement after its meeting has become even more prominent and scrutinized since the beginning of quantitative easing. Today was no exception with lots of special programming on CNBC and every guest being quizzed about the Fed and the tapering of the QE program. The announcement was a yawn - same ole, same ole. The tapering continues at the rate of a ten billion dollar reduction after each fed meeting and interest rates will remain effectively at zero for the foreseeable future. Many thought this morning's shocking GDP number for the first quarter, +0.1% as compared to the fourth quarter +2.6%, might cause the Fed to blink. But they chalked it up to winter storm effects and moved on.
The markets were basically trading sideways before the announcement and nothing really changed after the announcement. SPX gained $6 to close at $1884 and RUT also gained $6, closing at $1127. The VIX dropped about a third of a point to 13.4%. SPX has been testing resistance at $1885 for several sessions now, so I will be watching for that break-out to confirm a bullish trend. On the other hand, RUT has been testing support at its 200 dma at $1113 for several sessions. I will be surprised to see SPX break through $1885 and begin to challenge the 2014 highs. This market's recent price action just seems to be choppy and sideways. The Fed should continue to serve as a base of support for the market, but it may be difficult to generate a new leg upward until the fall. The old "Sell in May" Wall Street adage may be starting early this year.
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 2169
The jobs report came in with 288 thousand jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%. The market popped on the news; SPX jumped very close to all-time highs at $1891 within the first 45 minutes of trading. But then we looked closer at the numbers, and the market pulled back.
SPX closed down $3 at $1881, but RUT gained $3 to close at $1129 (RUT is still trying to dig out of its hole). The VIX contracted a bit more to 12.9%. Trading volume also dropped with 1.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading volume fell 6% on the NYSE and dropped 10% on NASDAQ. The underlying reason for the declining unemployment rate is what has driven it lower for the past several years - the Labor Force Participation Rate continues to fall. With this report, it hit a 36 year low at 62.8%. The true unemployment rate continues steady at about 11%.
So why didn't the markets collapse as so many have been predicting for so long? First of all, corporate America has figured out how to cut people and other costs and continue to make money in the midst of this recession. And let's stop kidding ourselves; this is a recession. Millions of people are not only out of work, they have given up looking for work. Food stamps recipients are at all time highs. Secondly, the Fed is still supporting this market through quantitative easing and extremely low interest rates. This provides a floor for the market, but it doesn't give traders much reason to be very bullish.
My May iron condor on RUT at 1060/1070 and 1210/1220 stands at +3% with delta = +$49 and theta = +$149 on 20 contracts. Now that we are down to the last two weeks, theta will start to really kick in for this position. We would be even more profitable if not for repeatedly hedging our put spreads. My June iron condor on RUT at 1040/1050 and 1220/1230 is already at +5% with delta = +$9 and theta = +$75 on 20 contracts. This position is nearly perfectly delta neutral.
Enjoy your weekend. Unfortunately, we are still dealing with 40 and 50 degree weather here in Chicago. And I received my property tax bill today; remind me. Why do I live here? Inertia?
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 2144
These wild intraday market rides are becoming commonplace. But I am not becoming accustomed to these swings. SPX traded over $26 or 1.4% from today's high to today's low. RUT was even wilder with a 2.3% swing today. Amazingly, SPX closed for a $6 rise at $1869 after breaking down through its 50 dma at $1859 and trading as low as $1851 before recovering to close higher. RUT traded weaker than SPX once again and closed down $6 at $1117. RUT traded down through its 200 dma at $1112 and below its low from the last pull back. That wasn't a pretty sight; I was contemplating major surgery, but then it turned back higher. It takes a strong stomach to watch these extreme price swings. I was surprised to see that the VIX remained steady at 14%, unchanged on the day. Apparently those large institutional traders have nerves of steel.
Trading volume matched these huge price swings with 2.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading; the 50 dma is at 2.3 billion and Friday's volume was 2.2 billion shares. Trading increased 20% on the NYSE and increased 12% on NASDAQ.
The only economic news of any import was the pending home sales report for March, which came in at an annualized rate of +3.4%, up significantly from the previous month's -0.5%. Most traders are watching for the announcement from the FOMC on Wednesday and Friday's jobs report. Today should have been a slow trading day as traders waited for those events, but it was wild - so what will happen when we have some real news? And I have long since given up predicting what will move this market. Will a strong jobs report unleash the bulls or the bears?
