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Today's FOMC announcement officially pronounced the end of the Fed's quantitative easing programs. All in all, the announcement was pretty standard fare. Of course, analysts are arguing whether the announcement was hawkish or dovish, or whether various phrases used in the announcement mean interest rates will rise in April or July of next year. It reminds me of a group of medieval soothsayers studying tea leaf residues.
The markets dropped quite a bit in the first few minutes after the announcement, but then stabilized. Apparently traders have decided the market can stand on its own. SPX lost $3 to close at $1982 and RUT also lost $3, closing at $1146. Trading volume was up a touch with 2.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading on the NYSE increased 5% and trading volume increased 13% on NASDAQ.
Plot SPX with its Bollinger bands. It is amazing how quickly it has traveled across the band from the lower edge nearly to the upper edge in just a few days.
We won't know for sure how the market has reacted to the FOMC announcement until tomorrow. Everyone will be studying those tea leaves this evening.
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With the FOMC announcement coming out tomorrow, one might have expected some slow sideways trading today, but the bulls were out in force. SPX broke through the 50 dma at $1967 and resistance at $1970 and didn't look back. It closed at $1985, up $23 on the day. RUT was also on a tear, trading up $32 to $1149. RUT broke through both the 50 dma and the 200 dma today, but still has a long ways to go to return to the September highs. Trading up another twelve points to $1161 would at least get RUT even on the year. By contrast, SPX is up 7.5% for the year.
Volatility continues to come in with the VIX falling to 14.5%. Trading volume moved higher, supporting the bullish nature of this market, with 2.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today. Trading volume was up 4% on the NYSE, but surged 23% on NASDAQ. Was that a result of the big surge in TSLA today? Day traders must love that stock!
Durable goods orders decreased 1.3% in September, but that was a big improvement from last month's 18% drop. The Case Schiller housing price index dropped 0.2% in September, down from the 0.7% gain of August. The consumer sentiment survey from the Conference Board for October reported a value of 94.5, up from 89.0. There aren't any disasterous numbers here, but nothing that might generate today's strong rally either.
I sold an iron condor at plus and minus one standard deviation on BIDU as a play on its earnings announcement today, and so far at least, that looks like a winner. My November iron condor on SPX only consists of the 1810/1820 put spreads; I closed the call spreads a couple of weeks ago. This position is gaining value each day as the bulls push the markets higher. Assuming those spreads expire worthless (probability of 99% as of today's close), the November position will conclude with a 14% gain - not bad after that plunge on October 15th. My December iron condor only consists of the 1810/1820 put spreads, but that position is up 8% at today's close. I am waiting for this market to slow a bit before entering the call spreads to complete the condor.
So we await the FOMC announcement tomorrow. Presumably, QE will be pronounced officially over and the same language will be used about interest rates only rising well into 2015. I expect the market to collectively yawn, but...
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The Canadian terrorism scare didn't last long. The bulls were buying with both hands as the market opened this morning. Apparently, the "buy the dip" strategy is on again. SPX gained $24 today, closing at $1951. RUT gained $20 to close at $1116. This puts SPX solidly above its 200 dma at $1908; the bulls are once again in charge of this market. SPX spurted upward at the open this morning and traded somewhat higher in the early afternoon, but then pulled back to close near where it was about an hour after the open. The VIX dropped off another point and a third to close at 16.5%. Trading volume was down with 2.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading today. Trading volume was unchanged on the NYSE and down 2% on NASDAQ.
The report of initial unemployment claims came in at 283k, up from last week's 266k. Continuing claims fell by thirty eight thousand to 2.35 million.
As volatility unwinds and SPX trades higher, the put spreads remaining in my November iron condor position are moving into the black once again, now up about 5%. If the bulls slow down, I might add some new call spreads, but that doesn't look likely.
Maybe it's time to start working that list of bullish stock candidates?
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After such a huge run last week, it wasn't too surprising to see the markets tread water a bit today. SPX lost $3 to close at $1962, and RUT declined $1 to close at $1117. SPX opened weakly this morning and traded as low as $1951 before recovering to close near its high for the day. That trading action tells me the bulls are still in charge of this market. Volatility was unchanged today, with the VIX closing at 16.0%. Trading volume was mixed with an 8% rise on the NYSE, but an 11% decline on NASDAQ. The trading volume on the S&P 500 stocks was not yet available as I write this a bit earlier than usual (I have an appointment shortly).
The only economic data today was pending home sales, up 0.3% in September, an improvement over the one percent decline in August. Durable goods orders and the Case Schiller housing price reports will be issued tomorrow, and we get the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon.
My November iron condor on SPX stands at a net gain of 7% with the Nov 1810/1820 put spreads remaining open. I closed the call spraeds when the market hit its lows week before last. Our maximum return on the November condor is 13%, and that looks pretty safe at this point. I took that opportunity of a low market to open the SPX Dec 1810/1820 put spreads; that position stands at a net gain of 4%. I will be entering the call spreads to complete the December position soon.
We may see another slow day in the markets tomorrow as traders wait to hear from the Fed. Presumably, QE ends this month. But maybe the FOMC will surprise us with something. Or traders will spook themselves based on a minor word change in the announcement. Stay tuned.
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Yesterday, I titled my blog, "Is It Safe To Come Out Now?", and today I answer myself (I talk to myself all the time). One could blame today's weakness on the terrorist attacks in Canada. But some analysts were expecting a continuation of the bearish down trend or were at least expecting a test of the support levels before heading higher. Today's drop satisfies both groups. SPX opened and traded higher this morning until the terrorist news hit the wires. SPX closed the day down $14 at $1927. RUT traded down $16 to $1097. The VIX lost about two and a half points yesterday, but gained almost two points back today. It remains a nervous market. Trading volume was flat to slightly down with 2.4 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading on the NYSE dropped 1% and trading volume on NASDAQ was unchanged.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported a slight increase of 0.1% for September, up from the 0.2% decline in August.
Both the SPX and RUT traded higher this morning before the terrorist attack news hit, so I am less concerned about this pull back. RUT's price action formed a bearish engulfing candlestick, known as an outside day in bar charts. By itself, that is a bearish reversal signal, but requires confirmation.
The bottom line is this: this recent market weakness is purely technical in nature. The markets became a bit frothy and now that is being corrected. The economic data and the earnings announcements thus far are not painting a bearish picture. I continue to think that traders are very nervous because of the Fed involvement in the markets; it is unprecedented and therefore makes traders nervous. It is hard to predict the future when you have no history with which to judge the present situation. That Fed presence and its unwinding, coupled with institutions sitting on gains from the last two years, make for an itchy trigger finger.
