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Today's economic news began with the preliminary GDP numbers for the first quarter of a 3.2% gain as compared with 5.6% in the fourth quarter. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.6% from the fourth quarter's 1.6%. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Chicago PMI) came in at 63.8, greater than the 60 that was expected; this is the highest PMI number since 2005. And the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index came in at 72.2, greater than the expected 71.0. All in all, it was pretty good economic news.
But the market tanked in response.
RUT lost $21 to close at $717 while the SPX closed at $1187, a loss of $20. Trading volume was mixed with a 6% increase on the NYSE and a 10% drop on NASDAQ. The S&P 500 stocks traded over 5 billion shares, an increase from yesterday and this represented the 14th day above the 50 day moving average. As you might expect, the VIX gained 20% to close at 22%. Gold hit a 2010 high at $1181. The modest trading volumes don't suggest widespread panic selling, plus the RUT and SPX both remained above key support levels set over the past few weeks.
Today's move took my May 650/660 770/780 iron condor on RUT to a delta neutral position with a P/L of -$1,160, delta = -$3 and theta = +$137. It will be interesting to see what happens Monday. I believe there is a high probability of much of this loss being retraced on Monday. At least some of the selling today was the result of taking cash off the table as the details of the Greece bailout are finalized this weekend. Barring any surprises over the weekend, buyers will likely return to the table Monday. But that is the beauty of my condor trade: I don't have to predict Monday's market direction (but it is fun to try).
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The markets bounced back strongly today with steady, significant increases on all of the major indexes. However, trading volumes were mixed with a 4% decline on the NYSE and a 13% increase on NASDAQ. Trading volume for the S&P 500 declined to 4.8 billion shares, down from yesterday's levels, but still above the 50 day moving average of about 4 billion shares. RUT closed at $738, up over $15 on the day, while SPX also tacked on $15 to close at $1207. The only economic news today was the unemployment claims numbers; initial unemployment claims declined to 448k from 459k and continuing claims declined from 4.66 million to 4.65 million - slow, steady improvement.
Today's huge move upward didn't help my May iron condor on RUT; the position P/L stands at -$1560 with delta = -$99 and theta = +$156. Adjustments will be required soon if this move continues. The delta of the $770 calls moved up to 14 today. It is worth noting that the broad large cap market, as represented by the S&P 500, traded down from its session highs after about 2:30 pm ET, but the small cap stocks represented by the Russell 2000 Index traded higher into the close. So this bullish run by RUT appears to be continuing. Thus, the recent defensive retreat of condor traders may not be over yet. But we trade what happens, not what we predict.
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Traders started the day on a sour note as Standard and Poor's downgraded both Greece's and Portugal's debt. This served to weaken the Euro relative to the dollar, resulting in one of the strongest days recently for the dollar. A stronger dollar normally hurts the market because it makes it more unfavorable for U.S. companies to export their goods. However, a stronger dollar also makes it easier for the U.S. to finance its debt, but that's another story. So the markets were down across the board and with higher volume as well. The sovereign debt news overshadowed two positive news items: the Case-Schiller housing price index for February increased over January and consumer confidence numbers for April also increased. Trading on the NYSE was up 39% and up 15% on NASDAQ. Trading volume for the S&P 500 jumped up to six billion shares; this makes the tenth day in succession that the S&P 500 trading volume has been above the 50 day moving average. Now the question on everyone's mind is whether this is just the beginning of a correction, or a knee jerk reaction to the S&P downgrade news. The VIX jumped to 23% on today's market action. RUT closed at $721, dropping almost $18 and the SPX lost $28 to close at $1184. SPX has a strong support level at $1180-$1182 and today's intraday low was $1182. I'll be watching to see if that support level is broken tomorrow. That would be one clue that the trend may have changed.
I removed the call hedges on my May RUT iron condor today and it now stands at a P/L of -$1660, delta = -$48 and theta = +$143. The theta/delta ratio is strong at this point, but further movement downward would actually be helpful to this position. Tomorrow afternoon we hear from the FOMC. Everyone presumes the easy credit will continue; if that presumption proves to be incorrect, we may see additional moves downward.
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The markets opened up positively this morning but dropped after being hit with the news that Standard and Poors downgraded Spain's debt. The markets then largely just chopped sideways, but strengthened a bit just before and after the FOMC announcement that interest rates would remain unchanged. Then the sideways march resumed until the last hour when the markets sold off. Trading volume was generally down today with a 14% drop on the NYSE and a 3% drop on NASDAQ. Trading of the S&P 500 was down a bit from yesterday's huge volume, but still above average at about 5 billion shares. Late in the day, RUT gave back all of the day's gains to close at $722, up $1. SPX was able to recover from the late sell off a little better and closed with an $8 gain at $1191. The recent attention given to the debt problems of some of the European countries has the bulls reconsidering their posture. But most of the economic news and earnings announcements in the US markets have been positive - thus, the choppy sideways market today.
My May iron condor on RUT remains unchanged with a P/L of -$1,420, delta = -$43, and theta = +$150 - a very healthy theta/delta ratio with 22 days to go.
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The markets opened weak and choppy this morning, but then began a slow ascent; it looked like business as usual. But then the sellers came into the market this afternoon and drove the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 indexes to losses on the day. The Dow closed essentially even, up less than a dollar. There wasn't any significant news; the most recent earnings announcements have continued to be rather positive. The Case-Schiller housing index and consumer confidence numbers are due out tomorrow. FOMC announces interest rate changes, if any, on Wednesday afternoon. If the Fed ticks the interest rates up even a little, that might trigger a bout of profit taking after this strong run. Trading volume was pretty flat today, suggesting we shouldn't read too much into today's declines. Trading volume on the NYSE was up less than 1% while the NASDAQ was down 2%. Trading on the S&P 500 rose a bit from Friday, remaining around 4.5 billion shares and above its 50 day moving average. The VIX popped up 5% to 17.5%.
My May condor hasn't changed much with a P/L of -$1760, delta = -$22 and theta = +$101. Barring any surprises tomorrow, the market may tread water until the FOMC announcement Wednesday.
