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The mood on Wall Street continues to be rather pessimistic with everyone focused on disaster scenarios such as a Euro zone default bringing down the global economy or Washington gridlock leading to the U.S. defaulting on its debt (this scenario is being told largely as a negotiating tactic - in reality, it is highly unlikely). The earnings reports so far have been pretty good but that hasn't affected trading outside of the particular stocks reporting. SPX closed down $11 at $1305 and RUT lost $13 to close at $816. Markets were down even more in early trading but recovered somewhat through the day. Outside of gold and AAPL, the screens were largely red. AAPL set a new all time high at $374 in advance of its earnings announcement tomorrow evening. But trading volume was down from Friday with 2.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading (right at the 50 dma). Trading volume on the NYSE was down 19% and trading was down 3% on NASDAQ.
My August iron condor on RUT continues to plug along, now at a net P/L of +$1,802 and delta = -$9 and theta = +$66. The pull back of the past week or so has actually pulled this condor back to a nice delta neutral position. The AAPL Jan 2012 butterfly recommended in my trading group a few weeks ago is doing well with AAPL's run upward; this position is already up 36%.
Today I opened a new section in the free Downloads area of this web site. I invite any of my blog readers to contribute any file that might be of interest to your fellow traders. The first entry is an article from one of my clients describing his journey learning to trade. If you have spreadsheets that you have found useful in your trading or anything else you would like to share, just send it to me with a note describing it and I will upload it to the web site.
Are you positioning yourself for Apple's earnings announcement? It should be interesting...
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The news is filled with negativity: European debt woes, raucous debt negotiations in Washington, persistent unemployment. But so far in this earnings season, corporate balance sheets look pretty good. What is a trader to do? Today's trading seemed to reflect that indecision today, chopping back and forth all day; but the bulls took a run at it during the last hour and managed to close the day with positive results on all of the major indexes. It appears this market's bias is to the upside. A resolution to the debt negotiations in DC could be the trigger.
The market's mood wasn't helped with a negative Empire manufacturing survey result and a large decline in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey from last month's 71.5 to 63.8 for July. And the uncertainty surrounding the continued deadlock in Washington is weighing on the market.
My Aug iron condor on RUT at 670/680 and 890/900 stands at a P/L of +$962 with a position delta of -$64 and theta = +$88. The July condor's put spreads expire worthless this weekend.
Have a great weekend.
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Bernanke's comments this morning plus a strong second quarter GDP report from China buoyed the markets today but enthusiasm waned as the day wore on. SPX traded as high as $1331 but closed at $1317, up $4. RUT gained $7 to close at $837. Trading volume dropped below the 50 dma with 2.6 billion shares of the S&P 500 changing hands. Volume was down 4% on the NYSE and down 7% on NASDAQ.
Today was a light day for economic data; tomorrow brings the unemployment claims, the PPI and retail sales.
My August iron condor on RUT at 670/680 and 890/900 stands at breakeven with position delta = -$78 and theta = +$100. Perhaps some of the upcoming earnings reports will change the dark mood of this market.
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The markets opened this morning in positive territory based largely on JPMorgan's positive earnings announcement. Bernanke's first day of testimony before Congress yesterday boosted stocks, but today's remarks turned the bulls into bears and the selling ensued. The relevant remarks appeared to be Bernanke's assertion that the Fed did not think it necessary to intervene any further to support the markets and did not have a plan to do so at this time. SPX hit a high of $1327 before selling off, breaking through the 50 dma and closing at $1309, down $9. RUT lost $14 to close at $823. Trading volume increased a bit across the board with 2.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading (the 50 dma = 2.8B). Trading on the NYSE was down 7% and was down 2% on NASDAQ.
Traders began the day with several economic reports. Initial unemployment claims were down 22 thousand at 405k while continuing unemployment claims were up 15k at 3.7 million. Retail sales were up 0.1%, but after auto sales are extracted, retail sales were flat for June. The PPI for June was down 0.4%. It did not appear that any of this data moved the market significantly one way or the other.
We closed the GOOG Double Calendar spread from Dr. Duke's Trading Group today for a 27% gain. I wish I had bought some GOOG calls this afternoon!
My Aug iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of +$1,142 with a position delta of -$34 and a position theta of +$77. After my July put spreads expire this weekend, I will start to look for the right time to initiate the September position. I can't believe I am talking about September options positions - where is the summer going?
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European sovereign debt issues loomed large in traders' minds today. Late in the day Moody's added to the gloom by downgrading Ireland's debt. SPX closed down $6 at $1314 and RUT lost $4 to close at $830. SPX bounced off of the 50 dma yesterday and earlier today, that support level appeared to have held once again. But late afternoon trading pushed markets lower and SPX broke through and closed below the 50 dma. Given that all of this occurred on higher levels of trading volume is not a good sign. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks rose above the 50 dma to 2.9 billion shares and trading volume was up 12% on the NYSE; Volume on NASDAQ was up 14%. IBD moved from a market assessment of "Confirmed Uptrend" to "Uptrend Under Pressure" yesterday.
IVolatility.com noted the possible head and shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 in their newsletter this week: left shoulder at $1345 on 2/21, head at $1370 on May 2 and right shoulder at $1355 on 6/30. The head and shoulders pattern is a classic upward trend reversal signal. It is confirmed when the price breaks down through the neckline of the pattern. In the case of SPX, that is around $1260 to $1265. My first reaction when looking at this was simply that by the time SPX breaks $1260, everyone will know the trend has turned. However, it isn't the prettiest head and shoulders pattern I have ever seen.
My Aug iron condor is essentially at break-even with a position delta of -$76 and theta = +$109. The delta of the 890 calls has returned to 12 and the call spreads are roughly one standard deviation OTM. So enough of this; now we return to worrying about Europe.
