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Traders apparently were expecting better news from Europe over the weekend. S&P futures tanked last evening and the negativity continued into today's markets. SPX traded down as low as $1188 before recovering some of the losses to close at $1204, down $12 on the day. RUT also lost $12 to close at $702. No significant economic data was released today. Obama revealed his plan to create jobs and that certainly didn't help today's markets. It was the same old "soak the rich and keep on spending" message. Traders saw this as a signal that the political camps are digging in for a prolonged fight. Nothing significant is likely to come out of Congress until after the 2012 elections. If this analysis is correct, this sideways, choppy market is likely to continue. The exception might occur if the infamous double dip actually came to pass. Signs of a renewed recession will push the markets to new lows. But the bullish case is supported by the unusual situation we have today where stock yields are better than bond yields - that is pushing money into equities out of bonds. But the headline risk from Europe may instead push those monies to the safety of cash (short term treasuries).
I removed the call hedges on my Oct condor this morning; this is the third time I have been whipsawed into and out of these hedges. My maximum profit on this position has been seriously eroded. I may have an opportunity to reposition this condor and improve the potential; we'll see. The position now stands at a P/L of -$3164, delta = -$80 and theta = +$130. The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow. I don't expect anything to come out of that meeting that will affect this market one way or the other.
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The S&P 500 slowed its advance today as it hit areas of resistance around $1220. SPX closed up $7 at $1216, but RUT noticeably slowed with a meager $1 advance to close at $714. Trading volume jumped upward with 3.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today, well above the 50 dma. Trading increased 59% on the NYSE and increased 36% on NASDAQ. But much of this volume increase was due to options expiration. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for September was released this morning, 57.8, up slightly from August's 55.7. The department of labor released unemployment data for the states today, showing that unemployment rose in 26 states, fell in 12 states, and remained unchanged in the remaining 12.
RUT settled at $717.19 this morning, so all of the spreads in my Sept iron condors on RUT will expire worthless. That results in a 13% gain for one position and a 19% gain for the other position. It is worth noting that both of these condors originated about a week before the market crashed in August and yet they made nice profits - the power of adjustments!! This brings the year to date gains for the Flying With The Condor™ service to 29% - pretty impressive when compared to a 3% loss for the S&P 500 over the same period of time. Perhaps you should consider auto-trading this service. Returns this high are normally only available to multimillionaire investors in private hedge funds with hefty performance fees. A 29% return for only $149 per month is a great value and isn't likely to stay that low for long.
The Oct iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of -$3,324 with delta = -$33 and theta = +$47. All eyes are focused next week on the FOMC and any statements regarding additional monetary policies designed to shore up the economy. My guess is that traders will be disappointed. But, in the meantime, focus on your family for the weekend. Worry about Monday's market Monday morning.
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The markets traded upward once again today, but trading volume dropped across the board - not as bullish as it might appear. SPX gained $11 to close at $1173 and RUT closed at $692, up $12. Trading volume in the S&P 500 stocks was down to 3.2 billion, down from yesterday and further below the 50 dma. Trading volume declined 4% on the NYSE and was down 3% on NASDAQ. The SPX chart is trapped in the range of $1120 to $1220. When one analyzes the various issues worrying the market (European debt, US debt and the lack of political courage to deal with the problem, intractable unemployment, etc.), it is hard to imagine any quick fixes. Therefore, range bound trading may be our environment for some time. Directional trading has to be very short term; Jeff Macke refers to this as a "Wolf Market": not bullish, not bearish, requiring the successful trader to trade in and out quickly. Directional trading is never easy, but when the "trend" is a matter of a few days, directional trades are particularly challenging. In this environment, trading delta neutral is very attractive. But the rub here is knowing how to adjust the trade as the market swings rapidly back and forth.
My September iron condors on RUT are cruising into expiration for a nice profit (13% and 17%). All of the spreads are in excess of two standard deviations OTM, so the probabilities of these spreads expiring worthless is very high. The Oct RUT iron condor stands at a P/L of -$2,600 with delta = -$57 and theta = +$128. The short calls have deltas of about 17 so we are close to requiring an adjustment if the market continues upward.
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Today turned out to be a positive day in the markets, but this morning illustrated the extreme precariousness of this market. The market opened up positively and traded upward, and then lost about $12 in about 5 minutes or less. As it turned out, the panic was based on a report of a committee vote in Austria dealing with procedural agenda arrangements for the eventual vote of their Parliament on the European bailout package. Within a few minutes, the markets recovered and traded upward steadily until the last 30 minutes of the day, when they sold off. SPX ran as high as $1202 before closing at $1189, up $16 for the day. RUT gained $12 to close at $704. Markets were encouraged by reports that the leaders of Germany and France assured Greece they would have emergency loans available to prevent default until the European Union bailout package became available.
Retail sales came in flat for August as did the PPI. A flat PPI was reassuring since many analysts have been concerned about inflation heating up. But flat retail sales were a concern.
Trading volume in the S&P 500 rose to the 50 dma at 3.6 billion shares; trading on the NYSE dropped 2% while volume rose on NASDAQ by 19%.
Today's trading reinforced two conclusions about this market: 1) It is an extremely volatile market - and those words don't do it justice. It can turn and run you over while you go to get a snack. 2) We are trapped in a trading range of about $1120 to $1220 (you might define the range a bit differently if you use the intraday highs and lows). Be cautious.
My September condors are well positioned to have all of the current remaining spreads expire worthless. All of the spreads are over two standard deviations OTM. My Oct condor stands at a P/L of -$3,000 with delta =-$70 and theta = +$120. The call spreads at 770/780 are under pressure. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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After trading as low as $1136, the S&P 500 rallied late in the day to close with a gain of $8 at $1162. RUT also closed higher at $680, up $6. The European debt problem remained at the center of traders' worries this morning, and news that China may be considering buying a large portion of Italy's bonds rallied the market toward the end of the day. But a rally of this magnitude was surprising. All of the major indexes closed for gains today after seeing severe losses earlier. The SPX touched $1136 at the low of the day, a little below the low of September 6th, and almost exactly the low of August 26th. Many market analysts have been watching for a bounce off of support before triggering any buying - was this it? I don't know; the market remains very skittish, and we have not actually had the worst headlines yet: Greece defaults, etc. This market's weakness has been largely anticipatory of those headlines. The VIX pulled back to 39% today, but that is still pretty elevated. Some analysts believe we still have lower prices in store before we can rally, e.g., breaking the support on SPX at $1120 before trading upward. Trading volume in the S&P 500 was down from Friday at 3.4 billion, below the 50 dma. Trading on the NYSE was down 9% and trading volume on NASDAQ was down 3%.
My two Sept RUT condors remain open; both spreads in both condors are over two standard deviations OTM, so I have left the spreads open thus far. The Oct condor on RUT stands at a P/L of -$2564 with delta = -$46 and theta = +$139. The elevated volatility is pushing the P/L lower; the call spreads are one standard deviation OTM and the put spreads are over two standard deviations OTM.
I will continue to watch the major support levels on SPX for directional clues; until I see a definitive move higher or lower, I will only be trading delta neutral positions. At times like these, the delta neutral trade presents a very attractive alternative. It is nice to be making money without making any predictions about the market.
