The markets reacted positively to the ISM manufacturing index reading of 50.6 for August, essentially flat from July's 50.9. But those gains couldn't hold as traders looked forward to the jobs report tomorrow. SPX dropped $14 to close at $1204 on lower volume of 3.1 billion shares. RUT lost $18 to close at $709. Trading volume also dropped on the NYSE (-10%) and on NASDAQ (-13%).
Both yesterday and today SPX tried to break through $1230 but couldn't make it. This isn't very bullish behavior; we are still well below the 50 dma at $1255 which will likely provide stronger resistance. Traditionally, breaking through the 50 dma strongly in either direction is a strong signal for the continuation of that trend, whereas bouncing off the 50 dma is often the sign of a reversal or a sideways consolidation period. Many market analysts are watching for signs of a possible drop to re-test the lows in August. Thus, SPX's behavior at $1230 and at the 50 dma will be closely watched. As today's trading session drew to a close, traders were paring back on positions ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payroll report, aka, the jobs report.
My RUT Sept iron condor position stands at a P/L of +$824 with delta = -$11 and theta = +$162. The Oct condor remains hedged and stands at a P/L of -$2,130 with delta = -$10 and theta= +$48. The jobs report in the morning will likely create a bout of market volatility in the opening hour of trading - don't jump either way too quickly.
Retest or Rally?
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