The markets were rather subdued most of the day, hovering around the open by a few dollars. But after the FOMC announcement, and then especially after Bernanke's news conference, the bulls began to run. SPX closed up $8 at $1356 while RUT ran $5 to close at $858, and that sets a 2011 high for a close on RUT. Trading volume was slightly down from yesterday with 3.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. That is just below the 50 dma at 3.3 billion shares. Trading on the NYSE was up 5% and NASDAQ trading volume was essentially unchanged from yesterday. The FOMC announcement didn't really have any significant new revelations, and I suppose that was what triggered the rally. Bernanke is holding firm that rates will remain low for "an extended period" and is willing to risk moderate inflation to stimulate the economic recovery. So the fuel continues to flow for a bullish stock market.
Gold hit new highs at $1530 per ounce and silver hit a 30 year high at $48 per ounce. Durable orders for March increased 2.5%. This increase in durable goods orders would normally have been seen as bullish news, but it was swamped by all of the attention given to the FOMC's announcement and the first of a series of news conferences by Bernanke.
My May iron condor on RUT moved into the red with a P/L of -$438 and a position delta = -$84 and theta = +$97. I still have 10 contracts of the 890/900 call spreads that are pressuring this position. The delta of the 890 calls hit 18 today. The June condor presented an excellent illustration of the power of a hedging adjustment. Yesterday, I bought July $900 calls to hedge the upside and the net P/L of the position was -$1,814. After another $5 increase in RUT today, that position's P/L is virtually unchanged at -$1,834 with position delta = -$40 and theta = +$45. So the hedge is doing its job for now, but more serious adjustments will be required if RUT continues its upward trek. After the news conference with Bernanke was over, it appeared that all of the talking heads and analysts have decided we have resumed the bull market advance. We'll see. Often the market surprises us when we all run to one side of the ship. But in the meantime, we delta neutral traders will simply trade what the market gives us.
The Fed Starts a Stampede
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- Written by Dr. Duke
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