Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

The markets took off to the races today and essentially replaced yesterday's losses in a surprising turn-around. SPX gained $12 to close at $1322 while RUT also tacked on $12 to close at $825. But trading volume was flat to down from yesterday with the S&P 500 stocks trading right at the 50 dma of 3.4 billion shares. Trading was down 3% on the NYSE and down 16% on NASDAQ. With oil still trading near $105/bbl, this market rally was surprising. Investors Business Daily (IBD) reset their market posture to "Market in Correction" from "Uptrend Under Pressure". This move was based on yesterday's market losses, but it is significant because it reflects many weak technical internals for this market.

Of course, the tendencies for this market to trade up and then back down the past couple of weeks has been good news for my condors. The Mar position on RUT at 730/740 and 875/885 now stands at a P/L of +$3,340 with delta = -$15 and theta = +$192. Theta is really ramping up as we near expiration. The Apr condor on RUT at 700/710 and 900/910 stands at a P/L of -$300 with delta = -$27 and theta = +$99. This position is in good shape as evidenced by the strong theta/delta ratio and the small deltas of about 8 for each of the short options in the spreads.

So we wait to see what the markets will bring tomorrow. My opinion is that the overall bullish trend is still intact, although some extraordinary events in the Middle East or Libya could change that at any time. But barring that, I expect oil prices to stabilize and some of the fear to come back out of the markets. But it seems unlikely that the bullish trend will continue with the steepness of the advance we saw a couple of months ago.