Oil prices broke through $102 today and yet the stock market traded largely sideways and even managed to close with small gains for the session. SPX closed up $2 at $1308 and RUT gained $4 to close at $811. Trading volume was down from yesterday with 3.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks changing hands. Trading on the NYSE was down 11% and was also down 10% on NASDAQ.
I believe this market is caught between two strong but conflicting perspectives. On the one hand, traders are afraid that high oil prices will shut down the economic recovery and may even push us into the infamous "double dip" that was the overwhelming fear for a time last year. On the other hand, we continue to see economic data and company earnings reports that support the idea of a continuing economic recovery. Yesterday's Chicago PMI hit a 20 year high, and today, ADP reported the creation of 217k new jobs. In addition, the Fed's Beige Book was released today and reported continued economic growth and strong retail sales across the 12 Fed districts. The result is a market that breaks to the downside one day and then recovers the next. So for the time being, the market may well trade somewhat sideways with a slight upward bias, trapped between these two perspectives.
My March iron condor stands at a P/L of +$2,660 with a position delta = +$17 and theta = +$143.
$102 Oil No Longer Scary??
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