The uptick in unemployment claims and a slight increase in the CPI sent stocks lower at the open today, but the buyers quickly took over and pushed the major indexes higher. SPX closed at $1340, up $4 and RUT gained $6 to close at $834. But the gains occurred on lower volume; trading in the S&P 500 dropped to three billion shares while trading on the NYSE dropped 4% and volume on NASDAQ was down 15%. Initial unemployment claims increased to 410k from last week's 385k while the number of continuing unemployment claims was essentially unchanged at 3.9 million. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4%, slightly higher than the expected 0.3%. On a more positive note, the Philadelphia Fed Survey hit a multi-year high at 35.9.
Today's increase on RUT wasn't kind to my March condors. The position delta and theta values on both condors are approximately equal, thus I am nearing the decision point to adjust and/or significantly reposition the spreads. The RUT 690/700 and 875/885 condor stands at a P/L of -$240 with delta = -$101 and theta = +$105. The 730/740 and 860/870 position stands at a P/L of -$800 with delta = -$135 and theta = +$131.
RUT has retaken the market lead. Earlier this year, RUT was trading pretty flat while SPX was gaining - the opposite of last year's pattern. But now RUT is gaining proportionately more than the SPX and setting new 52 week highs. Does this reinforce the bullish market trend? Historically small and mid-cap stocks tend to lead the early stages of the bull market. With everyone calling for a correction, this bull market may just continue to trample the bears.
Back On the Bullish Track
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