The jobs report surprised and puzzled analysts this morning. The good news was an unexpected drop in unemployment from 9.4% to 9.0% - most analysts were expecting an increase to 9.5%. The bad news was a less than expected number of new jobs created of 36k - analysts were expecting 135k. Should we interpret this as good or bad news? Some analysts noted that the population estimates used in the unemployment rate calculations were revised this month and this accounted for the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. The report also revised the last 12 months of jobs data to reduce the number of new jobs reported by 378 thousand. Judging from the choppy sideways day in the markets, most traders didn't take this jobs report as great news. SPX closed at $1311, up $4 while RUT gained a little over one dollar to close at $800. This is the fourth day SPX has managed a close above the support level of $1300, so that is positive for the bulls, but the market action has been anemic. Trading volume was flat to down with 3.0 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading, down from 3.5 billion yesterday. Volume decreased 9% on the NYSE, while trading was up 1% on NASDAQ.
Those of you trading PCLN were given a shock today when they announced that earnings would be webcast on Feb. 23, an announcement previously scheduled for Feb. 17 before Feb options expiration. This caused the implied volatility (IV) in the Feb options to collapse and IV in March exploded. I had a Feb/Mar $420 call calendar that was doing well with a 32% gain until this morning when I closed it for a 127% gain! However, anyone holding long Feb options on PCLN is crying in their beer at this hour.
My Mar iron condor spread is doing well with a P/L of +$260, position delta of -$16 and position theta = +$77. The 875/885 calls are over one standard deviation OTM while the 690/700 put spreads are almost two standard deviations OTM.
Jobs Report Confounds the Market
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- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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