The markets opened weak this morning on the back of a stronger dollar and some poor news on the unemployment front. New unemployment claims rose from 474k to 496k with the market expecting 460k. Ongoing unemployment claims rose to 4.62 million from 4.61 million with the market expecting a decline to 4.57 million. This sent all of the major indexes significantly lower. But the dollar weakened as the day wore on and the market recovered most of its losses. After plunging as low as $621, RUT closed unchanged at $630, right in the middle of its 625-635 trading range. Similarly, SPX traded down to $1086 before recovering to close at $1103, a loss of less than $2. SPX has strong support at $1100 and resistance at $1116. What strikes me about this market is its lack of direction; it seems trapped in this trading range without a strong bullish case, but also without a strong case for lower prices. The flurry of earnings reports during the past few weeks are similar when you think about it: companies generally have slashed costs to retain earnings but their revenues have actually decreased and their forecasts for growth have not been overly optimistic. Thus, one gets a picture that isn't very bullish when looking forward, but it isn't full of gloom and doom either. So a sideways market isn't too surprising.
My Mar condor stands at -$1,540 and delta = -$67 and theta = +$178 and the April condor stands near breakeven with delta = -$43 and theta = +$83.
Large Swing But Back In The Range
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- Written by Dr. Duke
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