The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) posted a strong beginning for June this week, closing today at 6000, up 61 points or one percent. SPX opened the week at 5897 for a weekly gain of 1.7%. Trading volume for the S&P 500 stocks has continued its trend of running below the 50-day moving average (dma).
VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, steadily declined this week, opening at 19.8% and closing today at 16.8%. VIX declined 1.7 points today
or -9.3%.
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which has made significant gains this week, closing at 211.9 for a gain of 3.4 points or 1.6%. IWM gapped open higher this morning, bringing it closer to breaking above the 200 dma. IWM’s trading volume remains below average this week, as it has been since early May. However, the gap opening is a very positive sign for these high beta stocks.
The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 19,530, up 232 points or
1.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 19,063, setting up a strong weekly gain of 2.4%. NASDAQ posted strong returns for May and has continued that strong bullish trend for June. However, NASDAQ’s trading volume ran below the 50 dma all week.
The market has been trading higher since the middle of April, but It feels like we have been waiting for a bullish market for a long time. We have seen a lot of volatility since early April. May put in a solid bullish month, but it was volatile, frequently jerking us back and forth. The past two weeks look much more solid.
The prices of the S&P 500 index, the NASDAQ Composite and the Russell 2000 index are now all trading above the 50 dma. But all of these broad market indices continue to trade below the 200 dma. So, we aren’t out of the woods yet.
The most bullish signal this week was IWM gapping open today and trading higher. That is a strong sign for an ETF built with high beta stocks. With the notable exception of TSLA, all of the positions in my portfolio are positive. And even TSLA shows signs of recovering quickly from the public spat. Volatility has declined steadily since May 17th and closed today at 16.8%. That is the lowest level of VIX since late February. However, the market is on edge with all of the tariff hype and fear mongering. Each day brings the risk of a rapid move in one direction or another that may reverse quickly within the same trading session. Continue to be cautious.
Strong Start For June
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- Written by Dr. Duke
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