The markets have been trading higher for the past several days, but still have not broken through key resistance levels. SPX gained $13 today to close at $1947. RUT gained $9 to close at $1142. Consistent with these gains, volatility has declined, with the VIX dropping over one point to close at 13% today. Trading volume wasn't much higher today with 1.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading; this was flat with yesterday. Trading on the NYSE increased 5% and trading volume increased 3% on NASDAQ.
SPX traded as high as $1948 just before noon but then just wandered sideways the balance of the day. Resistance in the range of $1950 to $1960 remains an obstacle to calling an end to this correction. We need to see a close above those levels.
The Labor Department's job openings report (JOLTS) hit 4.67 million for June, the highest number of openings since February of 2001. One problem with this report is that it doesn't distinguish between full time and part time jobs; I am concerned that ObamaCare is driving companies to offer new employment as part time jobs. Retail sales were reported for July today at an increase of 0.1%, down from June's +0.2%. Most recent economic data have been positive and are not trending lower, but we are far from the robust growth that has characterized all past recoveries from recession. The economy remains very weak.
I closed the SPX Aug 1920/1930 put spreads today; assuming the 2020/2030 calls expire worthless this weekend, that will result in a 3% loss. But my SPX Sept 1830/1840 and 2040/2050 condor currently stands at a net gain of 13%, so that is helping a lot. Probably the main risk for this market is unexpected news from one of the global hot spots. Absent that, I am inclined to think we will continue to see modest gains.
Getting Very Close...
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