SPX traded up at the open, and traded up from there to its intraday high at $1882 by late morning, but slowly traded downward over the rest of the trading session. SPX broke support at $1870, trading as low as $1864, and then closing at $1868, down $10 on the day. But I regard this as a "technical break" - yes, it broke support at $1870, but support and resistance levels should be regarded as fuzzy bands of price. I will wait until tomorrow to see if we really broke support. But RUT has been predicting a pull back for some time now, trading downward each day as SPX bounced off support and remained largely unchanged. Today RUT traded off more than SPX, down $13, closing at $1187. This brings RUT close to support at $1182, the high from January 22nd and the break-out of late February.

Trading volume in the S&P 500 was up a bit from yesterday with 2.0 billion shares today but remains below the 50 dma at 2.3 billion shares. Trading volume on the NYSE dropped 7%, but volume rose 19% on NASDAQ.

Volatility rose modestly with the VIX rising almost one point to 14.8% - as Goldilocks said, not too hot, but not too cold.

Let's reflect on the past ten days of trading: Last Monday, we dropped about $12 on SPX because of the Ukraine/Russia problems, but all of that loss and then some was recovered the next day with a $25 rise. For the past three sessions, SPX has tested support at $1870, and with the exception of today, has held that support level well. But at the same time RUT has now traded lower five days in succession. Hmm... Is RUT telling us something? Or should we focus on SPX's relative strength? My conclusion is that the bulls have demonstrated that they are not about to go away quietly. Having the Fed's support is intoxicating. Perhaps the big players are just taking some of their higher risk assets off the table (RUT).

The dividend yield of the S&P 500 at 1.8% is near record lows - you have to go back to August of 2000 to see slightly lower yields at 1.1%. So the need for a "pause that refreshes" is hard to dispute. But I am inclined to think a huge correction is unlikely simply because of the Fed's ongoing support. It seems to me we have a tug of war with very powerful forces on both sides. Maybe some sideways or even slightly downward trading is the most likely answer? I am still largely playing trades sideways to slightly bullish, but I am protecting my downside as well. One thing about this market is clear - it can break and run hard in either direction very quickly.