Yesterday I thought we were at a tipping point and could either bounce back upward and end the correction, or dip even lower. When I saw the weak jobs report this morning, I thought the worst. But the markets took off as though we had achieved full employment overnight! SPX gained $24 to close at $1797 and RUT closed up $13 at $1117. SPX closed just one dollar below today's highs. And volatility pulled back nearly two points with the VIX closing at 15.3%. Amazing. Trading volume was close to flat with 2.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today; trading volume dropped 2% on the NYSE and increased 7% on NASDAQ.
The non-farm payrolls report came in with an anemic 113 thousand jobs and tells us unemployment ticked down to 6.6%. Does this make any sense? The unemployment rate continues to drop while a pathetic number of jobs are added to the economy?
And then the market reacts by buying with both hands. Does that make any sense? Some analysts suggest that the market sees the poor data as evidence that the Fed will slow or stop its stimulus reduction. Really? Markets have always defied reason from time to time, but it seems as though this is becoming the new normal. Don't get me wrong. I am glad the market didn't crash, but it would certainly be nice if I understood the rationale for the exuberant buying.
As my dad used to say, "Don't look a gift horse in the mouth", so I will accept the gift graciously (trivia question for today: where did that saying come from?).
Enjoy your weekend.
Forget Rational Analysis
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1710

