Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

As I expected, the enthusiasm from Friday was muted significantly today. SPX gained $3 to close at $1808, but RUT lost $2 to close at $1129. VIX dropped off about a third of a point to 13.5%. Trading volume was flat in the S&P 500 stocks, coming in right at the 50 dma at 2.1 billion shares. Trading volume on the NYSE declined 2% and volume dropped off 5% on NASDAQ.

In one report I read today, the percentage of bullish investment advisers was at the highest level of the year. That has been a reliable indicator of the tops of bullish markets in the past. When everyone thinks the market is going higher, we are often very close to the top of the trend.

It seems like almost all of the market commentary concerns the FOMC and when they might start reducing their stimulus programs. The majority of the Fed watchers are expecting the tapering to begin in March, but who knows?

Today's market action was pretty bearish, in my opinion. SPX toyed with the idea of a new closing high, but couldn't quite make it. However, Russell actually declined - not by a lot, but weaker than the S&P 500. This contrast of SPX and RUT that we saw today is not isolated. A similar pattern has repeated several times over the past few weeks.

My Dec iron condor on RUT stands at a net P/L of +$2,090 or +13% with position Greeks on 20 contracts at delta = -$96 and theta = +$128.

Another consideration for traders of this market: When will trading volume begin to dry up in anticipation of Christmas and New Year's? One might expect that to result in more sideways consolidation trading, but the bulls were very much in charge during Thanksgiving week, in spite of low trading volume. Stay tuned.