Dr. Duke's Blog

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 02 March 2010

Investor's Business Daily changed its market reading to "market in confirmed uptrend" after yesterday's strong performance. Stocks traded up across the board today, although trading volume remains below average. Small cap stocks had led the recent gains, outpacing the large stocks typical of the S&P 500. RUT traded up almost $6 to close at $648 today, while the SPX rose a little less than $3 to close at $1118. The SPX appears to be struggling to break through $1120; it was above $1120 a couple of times today, but was pulled back. By contrast, the Russell 2000 index is only one dollar short of its 52 week high. The S&P 500 would have to rise over $30 to reach its 52 week high.

This March expiration month has been a very challenging month for delta neutral traders. This is one of those months when good traders are happy to break even or at least minimize their losses. I opened my Mar condor on January 21 with the RUT at $628; it proceeded to drop over $42 to $586 and has now roared back upward by $62 to its close today at $648. I rolled my Mar 660/670 calls up to 670/680. The trade now stands at a P/L of -$3,140, delta = -$28 and theta = +$153. This last adjustment moved our Greeks into a good position, but even if the market trades within the channel formed by this trade for the next couple of weeks, this trade will just barely break even.

The Apr condor stands at a P/L of -$805, delta = -$79 and theta = +$79 after adding a May call to adjust the position earlier today.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 01 March 2010

The markets chopped about a bit this morning after disappointing news from the ISM manufacturing index; the index declined for Feb and was lower than expected. But it didn't take long for the market to get over that disappointment and then it traded pretty steadily upward the balance of the session. Trading volume was mixed but generally lower: down about 8% on NYSE, up about 11% on NASDAQ, but it remained below the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500. RUT traded up over $14 to close at $643. The SPX closed at $1116, up a little over $11. The SPX close is right at resistance, whereas RUT clearly broke through resistance and is closing on its 52 week high at $649. Another remarkable aspect of today's strong market - this all happened as the dollar was trading higher.

Today's strength necessitated some adjustments to my Mar iron condors. I bought two Apr $660 calls for $8.50 to protect my call spreads. I also closed my 570/580 put spreads for $0.35 (a gain of $900) and rolled up to 590/600 for $0.60. So the Mar position now stands at a net loss of $2,080 and position delta = -$71 and theta = +$178. This trade is struggling to break even at this point; absent a pull back, we may be simply holding our losses to a minimum.

The April iron condor stands at a P/L of -$60, delta = -$93 and theta = +$89. The delta of the short $680 calls is up to 17, nearing the area for adjustment.

Now the big question: is this market going to push to new highs as RUT appears to be doing or drop back within the trading range as it appears the S&P 500 is doing?

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 26 February 2010

The markets are shrugging off good news and are largely unaffected by bad news. GDP results for the fourth quarter were revised upward to an annual rate of 5.9%, but the markets apparently do not believe this is sustainable so that had little effect. Existing home sales were down 7% in January and the consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan was unchanged - so consumers are also trading sideways just like this market. Trading volume was down on all markets. The S&P 500 closed at $1104, a gain of less than $2 (still in its trading range) while the RUT was close to unchanged, closing at $629, down less than $2 (also still within its trading range).

The time decay on my March condors is building and slowly moving that position toward profitability. The P/L is up to -$840 (was at -$1540 yesterday) with delta = -$70 and theta = +$162. The newly coined April condor is already in the black with +$600, delta = -$37 and theta = +$75. Both positions have healthy theta/delta ratios. The market's indecision is good for delta neutral positions.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 25 February 2010

The markets opened weak this morning on the back of a stronger dollar and some poor news on the unemployment front. New unemployment claims rose  from 474k to 496k with the market expecting 460k. Ongoing unemployment claims rose to 4.62 million from 4.61 million with the market expecting a decline to 4.57 million. This sent all of the major indexes significantly lower. But the dollar weakened as the day wore on and the market recovered most of its losses. After plunging as low as $621, RUT closed unchanged at $630, right in the middle of its 625-635 trading range. Similarly, SPX traded down to $1086 before recovering to close at $1103, a loss of less than $2. SPX has strong support at $1100 and resistance at $1116. What strikes me about this market is its lack of direction; it seems trapped in this trading range without a strong bullish case, but also without a strong case for lower prices. The flurry of earnings reports during the past few weeks are similar when you think about it: companies generally have slashed costs to retain earnings but their revenues have actually decreased and their forecasts for growth have not been overly optimistic. Thus, one gets a picture that isn't very bullish when looking forward, but it isn't full of gloom and doom either. So a sideways market isn't too surprising.

My Mar condor stands at -$1,540 and delta = -$67 and theta = +$178 and the April condor stands near breakeven with delta = -$43 and theta = +$83.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 24 February 2010

The markets traded down this morning after reading Bernanke's prepared remarks for Congress, but then rebounded and held some of the gains into the close. SPX closed up over $10 at $1105 while the RUT closed at $630, up about $5. Both indexes are still trading within the narrow ranges of support and resistance we have discussed earlier, especially the well defined range for the S&P 500 from $1100 to $1116.

I decided to establish my April iron condor on RUT today. I sold twenty contracts of the 680/690 calls for $1.10 and twenty contracts of the 550/560 puts for $0.85. At the close, this position stands at a P/L of -$80, delta = -$43 and theta = +$78. Both short options are at a delta of 13. Our Mar RUT condor now stands at -$1,720, delta = -$68, and theta = +$161. The 660/670 calls are about one standard deviation OTM and the 570/580 puts are about one and a half standard deviations OTM. The weather is perfect for condors, just muddling along.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 23 February 2010

The February Consumer Confidence numbers came out this morning and were the lowest since April 2009. That, coupled with a strong dollar, sent the market down and it never recovered. The S&P 500 closed at $1095, down over $13. The SPX price chart shows a channel from $1085 to $1115 that SPX traded within over several weeks in November and December last year. So today's move down stayed well within that range. Coupled with lower trading volume, today's downward move wasn't significant. RUT also lost ground today, falling about $7 to close at $625, right at the support level formed by the double top last September and October.

Today's downward move was sufficient for me to remove the long call hedge on the March iron condor. I sold the two April $640 calls for $12.30, a $660 gain. That brought the position P/L to -$1,980 with a position delta of -$56 and a position theta of +$160. Our adjustments on both sides this month have removed much of our profit potential; the most we can hope for is about $1,800. Our Greeks are looking pretty good; if RUT trades within a relatively narrow sideways range, we may still squeak out a profit. The objective in this business is to minimize losses, not necessarily eliminate them.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 22 February 2010

After a day of choppy back and forth trading, the markets closed essentially unchanged on lower trading volume. The SPX closed at $1108 with a decline of less than a dollar, while the RUT closed at $632, up less than a dollar. The SPX appears to be caught in the same consolidation range of $1100 to $1116 as it was from mid-November to mid-December last year. Bernanke's testimony later this week could jolt the market out of this trading range, but I would be surprised if he says anything new.

My March iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of -$1,540 with a position delta of -$10, and theta = +$115. We will initiate our April positions later this week. I considered selling the April hedges today, but decided we need that protection until we get a least some minimal pullback in RUT. So far, it seems to be stubbornly moving higher, just very slowly.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 19 February 2010

The Fed's move to increase the discount rate appeared to have the market headed lower as the market opened today, but the market recovered quickly, erased the early losses and closed with modest gains. A surprise decline in the consumer price index this morning probably helped the market's mood. RUT closed up over $2 at $632 while the SPX traded up to $1109. In my opinion, we have not definitively broken through resistance as yet. But, on the other hand, today marked the eighth successive up day for RUT - rather remarkable.

My Mar condor is in pretty good shape after yesterday's restructuring. The P/L stands at -$1,800 with a position delta of +$1 and theta = +$103 - now that's a theta/delta ratio for you! We still have our two April $640 calls in place; they now stand at a gain of $1400. Those calls are responsible for this trade being so perfectly delta neutral.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 18 February 2010

News of increased unemployment claims this morning (up 31k) plus the largest gain in the PPI since October 2008 (1.4%) had the market concerned about inflation and a possible raise in rates by the Fed in response. But positive news came with the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index up in February by 15%. The market traded pretty much sideways through most of the day with the SPX and RUT both right at strong resistance levels. But the afternoon trading inched up and resulted in both the SPX and RUT closing above resistance, but not strongly and on reduced trading volume - so is it really a break out or will it pull back in the next few days? RUT closed at $629, up over $4, and somewhat above its resistance level at $625. SPX closed above the $1100 resistance level at $1107, a gain of a little over $7.

Even though a case could be made for the markets stalling here in this area of strong resistance, I decided my March iron condor was too close to the edge. I closed the 20 contracts of the $640/650 calls for $3.40 and rolled up to 660/670 for a credit of $1.23. I also closed the 20 contracts of 520/530 puts for $0.22 and rolled up to 570/580 for $0.80. I left the April $640 calls on (now up by $1200) until I am sure this upward move has ended or at least slowed. This brings my Mar condor to a P/L of - $2,050, delta = +$16 and theta = +104. The profit potential for this trade is now reduced to about $2300 - not great, but still in the game. This has been a crazy month! RUT was trading at $636 when we opened this trade, dropped 9% to $580 and then rose 8% to today's close at 629. These are the unusual months that your trading strategies must be able to survive for trading the condor long term to be feasible.

On a more positive note, today's close for RUT at $629 makes it reasonably certain that our Feb 540/550 put spreads will expire worthless (RUT settles in the morning); you may recall we closed the calls last Friday, so our Feb iron condor gained $2,794 or 17% on capital at risk. Next week, we will start to look at entering our April condor.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 17 February 2010

Yesterday's strong move in the markets left RUT and SPX right up against strong resistance levels; they failed to break through today. In the case of RUT, the $625 level was set by the double top back in September and October of last year. The S&P 500 is facing the $1100 resistance level it found so difficult to break through late last year. RUT closed today just below the $625 mark, up less than $4. Similarly, SPX rose almost $5 but closed just a few cents shy of $1100. Housing reports this morning were mixed with housing starts up in Jan over Dec but building permits were down in January. This afternoon, the FOMC released the minutes from their last meeting; that insight into the FOMC discussions didn't seem to have much effect on the stock markets but it did help strengthen the dollar. Today's modest strength in the stock market was surprising in light of the dollar's trade upward today.

My Mar iron condor has been pushed far enough to have rolled both call and put spreads upward and now we have our long April calls in place as a hedge against continued a continued upward move. But that hedge is running out of steam. Our position P/L is now at -$1,150 with delta = -$106 and theta = +$78. The fact that delta now exceeds theta underscores the weakness of my position. I am watching this position very closely at this point; I won't allow the loss to exceed about $2,000 before I close and roll the call spreads. If RUT and/or SPX break through resistance, I will immediately close the call spreads.