Print
Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
Hits: 1457
Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

 For the second month in succession, the jobs report came in much weaker than expected with only eighty thousand new jobs. The unemployment rate stayed constant at 8.2%. The markets traded off in response with SPX losing $13 to close at $1355. RUT dropped $10 to close at $807. Trading volume continued low, probably a result of the holiday week. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks came in at 2.1 billion shares, well below the 50 dma at 2.8B. Trading volume dropped 12% on the NYSE and rose 2% on NASDAQ. 

 

SPX traded down as low as $1348, but recovered somewhat in late afternoon trading. SPX traded in the range of about $1310 to $1360 through most of June, and it appears the index is now back in that trading range. SPX managed to punch through resistance at $1370 before the holiday, but could not hold it. RUT's pattern is somewhat different. RUT spent most of June in the range of $735 to $785, but broke out much more strongly than SPX and appeared to even threaten to break the highs around $825 set in late April. So RUT remains in thin air even after today's pull back. Will RUT's new trading range be $725 to $825? I am focusing on these support and resistance levels because it isn't clear if this brief bullish run of the past several trading sessions is over or not. Some are even predicting a bearish push to much lower levels. Don't forget the Goldman Sachs call for $1285. I am inclined to think a choppy sideways trading range is the most likely result of the current mix of tepid economic data with underlying recessionary fears.

 

My July RUT iron condor stands at a P/L of +$2,220 with delta = -$49 and theta = +$81. Since there is so much less time remaining in the July position, today's pull back helped a lot. The call spreads are now about one and a half standard deviations OTM. The August condor stands at a P/L of -$1,180 with delta = -$98 and theta = +$84. I hedged this position before the holiday, but removed that hedge this afternoon. But this condor is far from out of danger. The Aug 850 calls still have a delta just under twenty.

 

Enjoy your weekend.