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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Today was another incredibly bullish ride in the markets. Hard to believe we were fearing the end of civilization on June 1. That is a bit of an exaggeration, but not much. It appears that traders have convinced themselves that the Fed will announce some type of quantitative easing or operation twist type of program to invest some "juice" into our economy. But I fear the market will be disappointed; I'm not sure Bernanke has much left he can do, and I'm not sure how much "punch" he has in his remaining tools. If I'm right, how severe will that disappointment be? We'll see tomorrow afternoon. I worry that it could get ugly; but, then again, I have been wrong before.

SPX closed up $13 at $1358. Interestingly, that close is right at the lows of April 9 and 23. RUT closed at $786, up $14. Trading volume jumped up with 2.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today; the 50 dma is 2.85 billion. Trading on the NYSE was up 9% and trading increased 15% on NASDAQ. The VIX opened at 17.7%, dropped a bit to a low of 17.4%, but then slowly increased throughout the day to close at 18.4%. In my view, this is still a surprisingly low VIX given the situation in Europe.

Housing starts for May came in at 708k, down from last month's 744k. Building permists rose by 57k to 780k in May. So the housing numbers were a bit of a mixed bag - certainly not the impetus for such a big rally in the markets.

My July iron condor on RUT stands at a gain of $1,960 on 20 contracts with delta = -$38 and theta = +$50. Fortunately, my put spreads are down at 610/620, so they should be safe tomorrow. Watch the markets tomorrow afternoon after the FOMC announcement; whatever happens, it shouldn't be boring!