Traders reacted negatively to several reports out of Europe: a disappointing bond auction in Germany, weak manufacturing data, and more. Markets will be open for half the day Friday, but many traders have left until Monday. Traditionally, this long weekend is seen as a time to rest and forget about the markets; but this year is different, traders fear what may happen in Europe while our markets are closed. Most of the broad market indicators suggest we are very oversold at this point after trading down strongly the past several sessions. SPX shed another $26 today to close at $1162 while RUT closed at $674, down $22. However, both yesterday and today, as the broad indexes dropped significantly, the VIX didn't rise much - down one point yesterday and up one point today. That is an interesting divergence that may point to higher prices next week. But who knows? If someone in Europe coughs, our markets will get pneumonia!
Initial unemployment claims are flat from last week, which is good, since we appear to finally be holding steadily below 400k. This week's claims came in at 393k. Continuing claims were up 68k at 3.7 million, essentially unchanged.
My Dec iron condor on RUT at 560/570 and 830/840 stands at a net gain of $840 with delta = +$24 and theta = +$99. We will see what happens next week. Unless some dire news comes out of Europe, I think we are poised for at least a short term rally. But let's forget about that and focus on family tomorrow. Happy Thanksgiving.
