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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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That infamous statement was commonly heard from stockbrokers who were trying to calm investors in 2008. Of course, history was on their side, but it has sometimes been many years before a bearish decline was worked off; in fact, we still have not reclaimed those 2007 highs. Well, this isn't your daddy's market. We recover dramatic downturns in the market in a matter of days, not years! SPX plunged $47 on Wednesday, but has now recovered about 75% of that loss in just two sessions! SPX tacked on another $24 today to close at $1264 with trading volume of 2.5 billion shares, a dramatic drop from the 3.5 billion shares traded Wednesday. RUT gained $19 to close at $745. Trading volume declined 19% on the NYSE and dropped 16% on NASDAQ. Wednesday's decline reaffirmed support at $1220. Resistance levels are at $1275 (Tuesday's high before Wednesday's collapse) and $1290 (the recent high of October 27). This extreme volatility is unnerving, but one has to be impressed with the strong underlying bullishness of this market. We may well be trapped in a sideways trading range for a while, but the bulls seem to be able to prevent the outbreak of a genuine bearish market. At least, they have turned back the attempts thus far. The decline in trading volume both yesterday and today is certainly not a strong bullish sign, but it is hard to argue with rising prices.

The only economic data today was the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey; it came in at 64.2 for November, up from the previous value of 60.9.

Hong Kong sold out all of their new iPhone4s models in three hours on Friday! I think AAPL is setting up to have a blow-out earnings announcement in January. I am looking at possible trades to take advantage of that prediction.

My Nov RUT iron condor at 660/670 and 790/800 stands at a net gain of $220 with position delta = -$24 and position theta = +$374, on 20 contracts. The put spreads are two standard deviations OTM and the call spreads are 1.2 standard deviations OTM. Normally I would close the call spreads at this point since they are less than two standard deviations OTM. But I am trying to nurse a small gain or break-even out of this position, so I will watch the call spreads closely and probably close them next week. The Dec condor at 560/570 and 830/840 stands at a P/L of -$200 with delta = -$37 and theta = +$105.


Have a nice weekend.