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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The combination of a mediocre jobs report and the ongoing political drama in Greece left stocks trading weakly downward today. The vote of confidence for Papandreou is scheduled for 6 pm EDT today. Regardless of the outcome of that vote, I think this market remains paralyzed by European debt concerns for quite some time, at least through the end of the year. SPX lost $8 to close at $1253 after trading as low as $1240 earlier today. RUT closed at $746, down $5. Trading volume dropped to 2.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 today; trading on the NYSE dropped 19% and trading volume dropped 8% on NASDAQ.

The nonfarm payroll report was a bit disappointing for analysts; an increase of 80k nonfarm jobs were reported with an additional 104k private payroll jobs. Unemployment remained essentially flat at 9.0%, as compared to last month's 9.1%. Albeit weak, this jobs report underscores other recent economic data, suggesting a painfully slow economic recovery rather than the feared "double dip". I believe that economic data is the explanation for the S&P 500 holding support at $1220 this week, rather than falling back into the $1120 - $1220 trading range of the past 2-3 months. This results in what I am calling "a cautious bull market". There appears to be an undercurrent pushing this market higher, but it is being held back by the Euro Zone drama.

The volatility index, VIX, returned to 30%, which was the lower end of its trading range over the past three months. It will probably be difficult for volatility to remain below 30% until some confidence grows in the European debt bail-out plan. News out of the G20 Summit wasn't encouraging.

My Nov RUT iron condor continues to limp along with a P/L of -$4,380 with position delta = -$90 and position theta = +$439. The Dec condor stands at a P/L of -$1,320 with position delta = -$48 and position theta = +$104.

Have a great weekend.