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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The latest news from Europe continues to be the dominant factor moving this market day to day. And, unlike most factors we analyze for their effects on stock prices, the European debt crisis defies analysis. Whenever you think it is under control, another rumor, interview or news report sends us all running for the exits. SPX traded downward $16 to close at $1210 and RUT lost $15 to close at $694. Trading volume declined to 3.5 billion shares in the S&P 500; trading was also lower on the NYSE by 12%. Trading volume increased 2% on NASDAQ.

The CPI came in for September at +0.3%, a decrease from last month's 0.4% increase. Housing starts were up at 658k, from last month's 572k, while building permits were down at 594k, from last month's 625k. SPX has been trading just below resistance at $1230 for several days now. Looking only at the price chart, one would observe that we are trading right at upper end of the recent trading range and the index may still break-out to the upside any day. However, VIX continues to rise; it closed at 34.4% today. That is a bearish sign.

I closed the 740/750 call spreads in the October RUT iron condor position for $0.16. That leaves the Oct position with only the 560/570 put spreads, safely far OTM. Assuming the put spreads expire worthless, our October condor finishes at a net gain of $1,516 on 20 contracts or 9.4%. This brings our 2011 track record for the Flying With The Condor™ service to a 32% gain - not bad for a year when the S&P 500 is down 4%. Our November iron condor on RUT with call spreads at 780/790 and put spreads at 560/570 is at break-even with delta = -$28 and theta = +$168.