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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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I am running out of superlatives to describe this market. Yesterday was very ugly; based on the extent of that down move, I was expecting a bit of a bounce this morning, but no, it just wasn't quite as ugly. By noon, the market moved into positive territory, but then slowly sank, nearly to the lows of the day. Then around 3:15 pm EDT, the SPX ran from its low at $1080 to the close at $1124 in 45 minutes - wow! SPX gained $25 on the day, closing at $1124; RUT was even stronger, gaining $39 to close at $649. RUT stayed in positive territory most of the day and traded up about $40 in the last 45 minutes of the day. Why? I am unsure anyone knows. Even the talking heads on CNBC, who always seem to have an answer, appeared befuddled. The bottom line is that the extreme volatility of this market is downright frightening. Trading volume spiked upward again today with 5.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading; volume was up 25% on the NYSE and was up 19% on NASDAQ.

Traders were expecting Apple to announce the iPhone5 today, but instead received an improved iPhone 4s. Thus, Apple shares were punished. Is this a buying opportunity for AAPL? Tomorrow will be interesting.

A bigger question is whether we have seen the bottom of this market decline. Today's spike upward on increased volume is certainly a bullish sign, but this market turns on a dime (or a rumor). Buying this market would be an aggressive speculation.

My Oct RUT condor with its put spreads at 500/510 stands at a net loss of $1204 with delta = +$14 and theta = +$67. If we have a few more positive days, perhaps I can get the call spreads back in place to complete this position.

Until we get some calming news out of Europe, it is hard to imagine this market settling down. VIX is still high, at 41%. I don't see an end to this volatility for some time. The jobs report Friday could be a significant market-moving event, or it could be ignored depending on what news is coming out of Europe.