SPX opened this morning and immediately tested the lows
yesterday by hitting a low of $1121 before rebounding and then trading sideways
all day. SPX closed at $1136 for a gain of $7. RUT gained $9 to close at $652.
Thus far, it appears the bottom of this trading range on SPX from about $1120
to $1220 is holding. But the market is fragile. More bad news from Europe or
Washington could send it lower. Trading volume was reasonably high, but dropped
off from yesterday’s high levels. 4.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 traded
today, still well above the 50 dma. Trading volume dropped 28% and trading on
NASDAQ dropped 32%.
At this point, it is clear that we are in a trading range, and have been in
this range for several weeks. Technical analysts tell us that the longer one is
in a trading range, the stronger the eventual break-out. The news or data item
that tips the markets one way or the other will likely be from the European
debt crisis, Washington’s deadlock, or some clear economic data signaling the
next recession. Soon, we will have earnings announcements to add to the
excitement.
My Oct condor remains unchanged with the 500/510 put spreads on RUT. Hopefully,
good news comes out of Europe this weekend. But try not to worry about that
until Monday. Enjoy the weekend.
