Print
Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
Hits: 2061
Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

Traders apparently were expecting better news from Europe over the weekend. S&P futures tanked last evening and the negativity continued into today's markets. SPX traded down as low as $1188 before recovering some of the losses to close at $1204, down $12 on the day. RUT also lost $12 to close at $702. No significant economic data was released today. Obama revealed his plan to create jobs and that certainly didn't help today's markets. It was the same old "soak the rich and keep on spending" message. Traders saw this as a signal that the political camps are digging in for a prolonged fight. Nothing significant is likely to come out of Congress until after the 2012 elections. If this analysis is correct, this sideways, choppy market is likely to continue. The exception might occur if the infamous double dip actually came to pass. Signs of a renewed recession will push the markets to new lows. But the bullish case is supported by the unusual situation we have today where stock yields are better than bond yields - that is pushing money into equities out of bonds. But the headline risk from Europe may instead push those monies to the safety of cash (short term treasuries).

I removed the call hedges on my Oct condor this morning; this is the third time I have been whipsawed into and out of these hedges. My maximum profit on this position has been seriously eroded. I may have an opportunity to reposition this condor and improve the potential; we'll see. The position now stands at a P/L of -$3164, delta = -$80 and theta = +$130. The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow. I don't expect anything to come out of that meeting that will affect this market one way or the other.