The most obvious aspect of recent markets is the extreme volatility. Today was one more example. SPX opened at $1174, plunged to $1140 and then rallied to make up most of those losses, closing at $1165, down $9 for the day. RUT behaved similarly, closing at $681, down $2 after trading as low as $664. RUT is trading in a broad consolidation range from $650 to $735. It is hard to see a trend at this point. This volatility isn't likely to abate any time soon. The German courts rule tomorrow on whether it is legal for Germany to bail out other European Union countries. On Thursday, we have both Bernanke and Obama speaking. It is very difficult, if not impossible, to predict a market trend in the midst of these news events. And, as we have seen for several weeks, traders continue to worry about the European debt issues and the slow rate of economic recovery here in the states - even though that is all old news. The ISM Services Index came in at 53.3 for August, up slightly from July's 52.7, another indicator of slow, but positive, economic growth.
My Sept iron condor on RUT at 600/610 and 780/790 stands at a P/L of +$684 with delta = +$41 and theta = +$173. My Sept iron condor on RUT at 560/570 and 780/790 stands at a P/L of +$2,600 with delta = +$15 and theta = +$120. The Oct iron condor on RUT at 500/510 and 770/780 stands at a P/L of -$1140 with delta = -$46 and theta = +94. This market is basically trading sideways - great for condor traders. But the extreme volatility taxes our adjustments and our discipline. The July, August and September condors have proven to be good measures of the condor trader's skill level. If you are making money in these markets, you have passed the test.
