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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The markets seemed to calm down significantly today. Trading volume dropped to 4 billion shares of the S&P 500; that remains above the 50 dma, but is well below the peak at nearly 8 billion shares on August 8. In addition, the trading range dropped back significantly. SPX closed at $1179, down $6, but its trading range was about $18, well below the $50 - $80 ranges of the last few days. RUT closed at $698, down $2. The drop in initial unemployment claims yesterday may have had a calming effect as that data was digested. It is interesting that so many analysts on CNBC have compared the past few days to the drops in 2008 and 2009. But if you review those charts, you will find those were orderly markets compared to the past few days. We have experienced 5 of the past 7 trading sessions with swings in the SPX of $50 or more. And consider this past week: we dropped $80 on Monday, gained $50 on Tuesday, lost $50 on Wednesday and then gained $50 on Thursday - you will be hard pressed to find anything similar in the history books. Today's $18 range on lower volume was a breath of fresh air.

My Aug condor is slowly working off its loss; it is now $1700 underwater with a delta of -$31 and theta = +$362. The Sept condor stands at a P/L of -$360 with delta = -$20 and theta = +$137 (both with 20 contracts). If (big if) this market crisis is over, our condors have survived well; the Aug condor is likely to close within our goal of minimizing the loss to less than a good month's gain, and the Sept position is sitting delta neutral with a good shot at a healthy profit for the month. But we'll see; the game isn't over quite yet. In any case, I am ready to relax; enjoy your  weekend.