Many analysts, including me, were doubtful this rally would continue after month-end. but we were proved wrong big time today - wow! SPX gained $19 to close at $1340 while RUT closed up $13 at $840. The Jun ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 55.3, up from last month's 53.5. This wasn't really much of a move upward, but analysts were expecting a decline, so this fed the Bulls' predisposition to keep the rally going. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey came in at 71.5, down slightly from last month's 71.8.
The next significant resistance level on SPX is $1345, the peak hit at the end of May before the market collapsed hard from there. Trading volume was down even further today with 2.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Similarly, trading volume was down 11% on the NYSE and was also down 10% on NASDAQ. It will be interesting to see what happens next week after everyone returns from the holiday.
My July condor on RUT stands at a P/L of +$2,700 with delta = -$61 and theta = +$114; the 880/890 call spreads in this position are still over one standard deviation OTM, so this strong rally hasn't stressed the July position very much. The Aug iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of -$380 with delta = -$93 and theta = +$78. The delta of the short 890 call stands at 18, so we will have to adjust this position next week unless the market pulls back. The theta/delta ratio also reaffirms the stress this market run is applying to this position - it has dropped below one.
Have a great holiday weekend everyone! Fly the flag proudly and enjoy those cookouts.
