It is fascinating to me how the markets can ignore bad news for so long and then suddenly focus on the bad news as though it is new and overwhelming. Bernanke spoke the obvious yesterday, viz., the economy is weak and the recovery is slow at best. And the markets behave as though this is an incredible, shocking surprise?? All of the market indexes sank to new lows today with the SPX losing $5 to close at $1280. RUT closed at $788 for a loss of $10. Trading volume was up a bit today with 3 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading; this is right at the 50 day moving average. Trading on the NYSE was up 10% and volume was up 13% on NASDAQ.
The price chart for the SPX is a bit scary; there are no obvious levels of support nearby. The intraday lows at $1295 on April 18 were easily sliced through a couple of days ago. The next strong level of support is the low in mid-March around $1257. That is also the neighborhood of the 200 dma at $1251. Today was the sixth day in succession that the SPX has set a new low each day - quite a string. SPX is now down almost 7% from the high set in early May. Technically, that is still within historical market correction territory but this chart is looking pretty ugly.
My July iron condor on RUT at 700/710 and 880/890 is doing well with a net P/L of +$1,660, delta = +$21 and theta = +$60. The theta/delta ratio of approximately 3 to 1 is very good and the position is still very close to delta neutral in spite of the recent moves downward by RUT. Both spreads remain about 1.5 standard deviations OTM with 36 days to expiration. I must say it feels good to not be adjusting or closing positions as this market collapses. I suppose that is the advantage of far OTM condor positions... or maybe the market gods are smiling on me this week!
