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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The markets opened lower this morning and traded downward until around noon and then the bulls woke up and started buying, taking the markets back near the opening levels. SPX sliced through the 50 dma and dipped as low as $1319 before rebounding to close unchanged at $1329. RUT traded down and bounced off support at $815, closing down $3 at $820. All of this action occurred on higher trading volume levels with the S&P 500 stocks trading 3.1 billion shares, just below the 50 dma at 3.2B. Trading on the NYSE was up 10% and up 7% on NASDAQ. Many technical indicators are nearing oversold conditions, but the current bias appears to be downward. However, the fact that today's strong downward move didn't turn into a very ugly day has to be encouraging. Perhaps we have just expanded the lower band of our trading range?

Lower housing starts were reported for April (523k, down from 585k) and fewer building permits were issued in April (551k vs. 574k in March). Industrial production was flat for April, down from a 0.7% increase in March. Capacity utilization was almost flat at 76.9% in April vs. 77% in March. This economic data may have contributed to the weakness in the markets this morning.  Some analysts believe the weakening of the dollar later in the day contributed to the market's rebound. But we may be reading tea leaves here, hoping to feel more confident that we have found the cause and effect relationship.


My June RUT iron condor at 690/700 and 900/910 stands at a P/L of +$1,716 with delta = -$14 and theta = +$60. This position remains delta neutral with a fair amount of safety margin to the upside (about 1.5 standard deviations) and a large amount of room on the downside (about 2.5 standard deviations). All in all, this is a difficult market to be trading now - unless you are delta neutral. But even then, the volatility can be a bit unnerving.