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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Yesterday's slow day appeared logical in light of the FOMC meeting starting today and issuing a statement tomorrow. But, just to shatter our predictions, the market took off to the upside today on strong volume. SPX traded up to its high at $1350 by noon and then traded largely sideways the balance of the day, closing at $1347, up $12. This is the first time SPX has been able to break through the high set in late February. RUT traded stronger than SPX in early April and although it closed up $9 at $853 today, it didn't reach the April highs. Trading volume on the S&P 500 was up sharply from yesterday's unusual lows with 3.3 billion shares, right at the 50 dma. Trading on the NYSE was up 29% and trading volume was up 40% on NASDAQ.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for April jumped to 65.4 from last month's 63.8. This report surprised traders and may have provided some of the bullish momentum today. The Case-Schiller housing price index reported a 3.3% decline.

My May iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of +$42 with delta = -$56 and theta = +$86. The delta of the 890 calls is up to 13, so this position is reasonably solid at this point. But my June condor is feeling the pressure. I added some Jul $900 calls today to hedge the upside and the P/L = -$1,814 with delta = -$42 and theta = +$55. The delta of the Jun $900 calls = 21. So now we watch to see if the FOMC surprises the market in some way tomorrow or somehow fuels this bull market even further.