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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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It certainly doesn't seem to me that the situation in Libya has stabilized and oil prices are certainly quite high and most analysts are still predicting higher oil prices. And the market takes off for its highest gain this year?? I guess this just underscores how difficult or impossible it is to predict the markets. SPX closed at $1331, up a whopping $23. RUT gained $18 to close at $829. But trading volume didn't rise as much as you might expect on such a strong upward push. 3.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks traded, just above the 50 dma at 3.4B. Trading on the NYSE was up 3% and trading volume on the NASDAQ was up 1%.

Some positive unemployment claims data may have helped the market; 368k initial unemployment claims were reported, down from last week's 388k. Continuing unemployment claims dropped 60k to 3.77 million. The ISM Services Index came in at 59.7 for February, up from January and beating analysts' estimates.

My Mar condor now stands at a P/L of +$2,600 with delta = -$40 and theta= +$204. Now that we are getting into the last two weeks before expiration, theta is ramping up. Now all eyes are focused on tomorrow's jobs report; much of today's run may have priced in a very good number. A disappointment could be brutal for the markets.