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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Oil prices and rioting in Libya were almost the only focus of the financial news outlets today. Oil stayed near $99 throughout the day, but declined to $97 late in the day. That seemed to calm the equity markets a bit. SPX broke through the $1300 line many were watching (including me), but after touching $1294,  it recovered most of the day's losses to close down one dollar at $1306. RUT fared better, gaining $5 to close at $804. RUT also traded down to find support at $795 before rebounding in late afternoon trade. Both indexes appear to be consolidating to form a bottom here, but any negative news out of Libya will change that posture quickly. Many of the market leading stocks are posting a similar pattern of either establishing a new support level or pausing at an old support level; take a look at AAPL, GOOG, GS and NFLX. That isn't to say that this evening's news from Libya may not take the market lower. But absent that news, stocks appear to be finding support. Trading volume was down from the high levels of the past two days, but still above average; 3.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 traded today, down from yesterday but above the 50 dma. Trading was up 1% on the NYSE and down 16% on NASDAQ.

Today's economic news was a mixed bag, but the market ignored it in any case. Initial unemployment claims went down to 391k from last week's 413k, while continuing claims rose by 55k to 3.8 million. Durable orders increased 2.7% but new home sales in January dropped to 284k from December's 325k.

My "mixed bag" March iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of +$2,020, position delta = +$56 and theta = +$128. I am waiting to close one of my put spread positions for a profit, but the recent rise in IV has made that more difficult. So we watch and wait patiently for the market to make its move.