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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The continued unrest in Libya and the Middle East cast a pall over the markets this morning, but traders were trying to buy the dip until oil hit $100 per barrel. That brought the sellers back into the market in strength. The S&P 500 Index hit $1300 in the early afternoon and found support there, closing at $1307, down $8 on the day. The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) appeared to be hurt by the prospects of $100 oil more than SPX today. RUT broke through support at $810, hit the 50 day moving average and bounced, closing at $800, down $13. Trading volume was up again today with 4.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 changing hands. Trading volume was up 2% on the NYSE and was up 10% on NASDAQ. The only economic news of any consequence today was positive: a 2.7% increase on existing home sales for January, but $100 oil and revolts in the Middle East held traders' attention. From my perspective, the panic that seemed commonplace in the markets yesterday was more subdued today with more traders expecting that the worst was over - of course, that could be wishful thinking. But there were glimmers of hope, e.g., the tech bellwethers, APPL and GOOG traded up $4 and $1, respectively. That isn't much more than a glimmer, but...

My PCLN Mar/Apr call calendar was closed for a 4% gain today; the big price drop over the past two days erased most of my profit. I was playing the volatility increase in front of tonight's earnings announcement, but the market collapse of the last two days wasn't part of the plan. The RUT iron condor position stands at a P/L of +$960, delta = +$45 and theta = +$180. This position is unbalanced with 20 call spreads at 875/885, 20 put spreads at 730/740 and 20 put spreads at 690/700. I will be looking for opportunities to close one of the put spread positions before I open the April condor.