Markets were alarmed today about possible ramifications of unrest in Egypt on oil prices and the possibility of unrest spreading in the Middle East. A disappointing GDP report for the 4th quarter didn't help. Growth in Q4 GDP was 3.2%, which isn't too bad, but traders were expecting 3.7%. Markets opened down and sank throughout the day. SPX closed just above its lows for the day at $1276, down $23 on the day. RUT lost $20 to close at $775. Trading volume was up with 4.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Volume increased 34% on the NYSE and increased 17% on NASDAQ. The VIX opened the day under 16% but closed at 20%, a huge jump upward, reflecting the market's anxiety over global events and where this might drive the markets.
My Feb iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of +$2,400 with delta = +$19 and theta = +$62. Increasing IV diminished the gains on this position, but it remains well positioned in spite of today's big downward move.
I was somewhat encouraged that SPX basically hit its lows for the day around noon and bounced around the 1275-1280 area the rest of the day. That isn't to say it can't go lower Monday, but it wasn't a case of free fall either. Some of the market's leaders, like AAPL and PCLN didn't lose much today, so wholesale selling hasn't yet broken out. But we'll see what next week brings. Perhaps things will calm down a bit in Egypt over the weekend.
